Opinion | How the coronavirus pandemic could lead to a ‘less Chinese’ belt and road initiative
- As the physical connectivity aspect of the belt and road plan takes a hit amid the Covid-19 outbreak, health and e-commerce projects may get greater attention
- To spread risks, China may have to work with partners such as the World Bank or Asian Development Bank – a move that could boost trust in the initiative
To soften the blow on countries taking part in the initiative, Beijing has already suspended debt repayment. In addition, while outright debt cancellation is not on the table or reserved as a least desirable last option, China is exploring other avenues such as interest payment suspensions, relief, or restructuring. Given the diversity of participating countries, this will be handled on a case-by-case basis.
The quicker the world recovers, the better traction for the belt and road strategy. The easing of lockdowns and travel restrictions will restore supply chains and recommence work on infrastructure projects across the region – but resumption will not be geographically even. It is likely to begin in Southeast Asian countries that were ahead in containing the coronavirus. The East Coast Rail Link project in Malaysia, for instance, resumed last week. Some projects like the China-Laos railway, however, were not halted by the pandemic. A third tunnel along the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project was also completed late last month.
That said, delays and disruptions will temper China’s ambitions. Ongoing belt and road projects will be pushed through, but those under negotiations may be deferred and no new proposals are likely to be introduced in the short term.