Biden’s US faces uphill battle winning back Asia’s hearts and minds – just look at the Philippines

Washington opposes Manila buying defence equipment from US rivals as it seeks to maintain its military and technological primacy
But to maintain its position it should also compete to provide infrastructure, market access and investments for the region, says Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Published: 6:00pm, 29 Nov 2020

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The visit by Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien to Manila last weekend has given a glimpse of the challenges the incoming administration of US President-elect Joe Biden will face in returning to multilateralism and marshalling its long-standing allies to pursue a regional agenda.

During his visit, O’Brien announced a delivery of precision-guided missiles and other weapons to help the Philippines battle local militants with ties to international terror networks, and reiterated Washington’s pledge to come to Manila’s defence if it was attacked in the disputed South China Sea.

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Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr said the weapons systems’ delivery fulfilled a pledge made by Trump to President Rodrigo Duterte, adding that the country looked forward to “training on the use of these weapons with the best and undisputed military power in the world”.

But Manila is not as reliant on Washington as it once was – in recent years, it has forged closer economic ties with Beijing, even while it challenges the latter’s expansive South China Sea claims, and has ambitions to be the first foreign market for the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles jointly developed by India and Russia. The Philippines also wants to acquire Russian rocket propelled grenade launchers and Kilo-class submarines.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Russia last Ovtober. Photo: AP

The maritime nation has long yearned to develop its submarine capabilities, especially as most of its neighbours – Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand – already have them or are acquiring new ones. If the Russian submarine deal goes through, it would make the country the third operator of Kilo-class submarines in the region after Vietnam and Myanmar. Acquiring such assets would enable the Philippines to catch up with its neighbours, provide it with greater underwater domain awareness and enhance its capabilities to guard its vast maritime realm.

Manila’s moves can also be seen as a way to hedge against the risks of great power competition: by dint of history and geography, it would not be able to escape the consequences of a clash in the South China Sea.

Washington has warned that purchases from rival suppliers may affect interoperability. Worries about US sanctions may have also motivated the Philippine Defence Department’s decision to forego a proposed purchase of 16 Russian Mi-171 heavy-lift helicopters that was reported last year.

Instead of the Russian equipment, which had a cheaper price tag, it chose Polish-made Black Hawk helicopters, the first batch of which arrived earlier this month. These are made by PZL Mielec, a Polish subsidiary of US aerospace and defence company Lockheed Martin, which acquired Black Hawk’s original maker, Sikorsky, in 2015.

Black Hawk helicopters used by Japan’s military are seen during an annual training session in 2017. Photo: Reuters

If Washington opposes Manila’s other planned purchases, it will need to balance how it makes its case, so as not to appear as though it is intervening in the Philippines’ sovereign choices and standing in the way of long overdue military modernisation. After all, Manila’s diversification bid is not capricious or an outlier – other Asian countries such as fellow US ally Thailand, for instance, have already procured Russian transport helicopters, and Chinese armoured personnel carriers, tanks, submarines and missiles.

When Biden introduced his new national security team on Wednesday, he declared “America is back”. While much of Asia, including the Philippines, would welcome the US reclaiming its global leadership role, regaining its position at the “head of the table” – as Biden put it – is not going to be a cakewalk.

Duterte – in spite of his tumultuous ties with the West over human rights allegations that he sees as domestic interference – has indicated a willingness to work with the next US administration.

As well as investing to maintain its military and technological primacy, Washington should compete to provide infrastructure, market access and investments. This would help sustain its position in a region where ambitious rivals are translating economic weight into influence and strategic advantage.

01:05

‘China has the arms, we do not’, Duterte rules out confronting Beijing in the South China Sea

Manila has also indicated its wish to update the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty it has with the US after suspending, for the second time, its bid to cancel a bilateral Visiting Forces Agreement. While the US treaty alliance remains a cornerstone of Philippine external defence, it should not preclude the country from sourcing arms from other suppliers or developing new security partnerships.

After all, given the considerable time and political hurdles involved in concluding new visiting forces agreements to formalise onshore joint exercises, the lack of institutional frameworks will limit the Philippines‘ security engagement with non-traditional partners like China or Russia.

Manila does, however, want to have more agency in charting the future of its alliance with the US – though this will be tricky in the face of continuing tensions in the South China Sea.

While the US-Philippine alliance should not be constrained by third countries, concerns about Beijing’s reaction to US troops and equipment being given access to Philippine sites presents a dilemma for Manila. When South Korea, another US ally, allowed Washington to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defence system on its territory in 2017, Beijing’s unofficial boycott of all things South Korean, including tour group visits, hit the country’s economy hard.

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Should a miscalculation in the South China Sea get out of hand, the Philippines could also be in the immediate line of fire given the rotational presence of American troops and if the country provides basing rights to the US military.

But changes could ensure the alliance’s relevance and resiliency endures. These may include giving Manila more say on the number of troops and kinds of assets the US can deploy and in which locations, as well as the types of joint exercises and the nature of threats the two allies will prioritise.

Bringing in other allies and partners as participants or observers in some of these exercises may also make them more open and inclusive. More timely information sharing and a focus on maritime and air capacity development would also address gaps in the Philippines’ defence capabilities, allowing it to play an important role in keeping peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

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