Opinion | Why deferring a decision on US-Philippine VFA military pact is Duterte’s best bet

The six-month reprieve for the Visiting Forces Agreement means it will be debated during the election campaign, essentially putting it to a referendum

Duterte does not want to leave a legacy of rupturing the accord or of putting his country in a bind amid US-China acrimony, so has found a way out of the dilemma

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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has less than a year left in office and is likely to pass the decision on the VFA to his successor. Photo: Reuters

Published: 12:00pm, 1 Jul 2021Updated: 12:00pm, 1 Jul 2021

For the third time in a row, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has deferred terminating a critical military accord with the United States. The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) which came into force in 1999, got a six-month reprieve.

With less than a year left in office, Duterte may pass the fate of the pact on to his successor. But as the expiration of the third window will coincide with the election campaign, it will essentially put not only the VFA, but also the country’s broader alliance with its long-standing ally, to a referendum. The stakes could not be higher given China’s growing presence in the South China Sea and increasing US-China rivalry.

This year, the Philippines and the US celebrate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and 70 years of ties as formal treaty allies. As a former US colony and commonwealth, the Philippines is traditionally one of Washington’s staunchest allies in Asia. But relations frayed in the last five years under the Duterte administration.

The Southeast Asian country hosted among the biggest US bases in the region until the early 1990s and later that decade started holding annual military exercises with the US. In 2014 it allowed American troops rotational presence in several agreed locations across the archipelago.

Washington has been Manila’s time-honoured defence partner and its security umbrella, especially during the Cold War, allowing it to focus on internal security, notably counter-insurgency. Over time, the alliance adjusted to changing threats, moving away from traditional security to areas such as counterterrorism; humanitarian assistance and disaster relief; search and rescue; maritime domain awareness and recently even coastguard cooperation.

But the Philippines’ close ties with its former coloniser also has its downsides. Manila was one of the most devastated Pacific cities during World War II, earning it the nickname “Warsaw of the East”. The Philippines also got engaged in many US-led wars. This came to a head when a Filipino migrant worker was captured in Iraq in 2004, leading to Manila’s withdrawal from a multinational coalition battling militants.

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