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Asian Angle | South China Sea: 6 risks facing Philippines and China as conflict threshold lowers
From violent incidents to US missiles in Luzon, a ‘perilous new normal’ and vanishing red lines threaten to derail the Code of Conduct
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Escalating clashes in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China have not only raised the urgency of a regional Code of Conduct but have created a volatile environment where the threshold for war is lowering and red lines are vanishing.
As diplomatic efforts stall, the fraught ties between Manila and Beijing are creating a complex crisis defined by six key risks, ranging from the normalisation of violent skirmishes to a dangerous entanglement with cross-strait tensions.
First, there is the palpable danger of lowering the threshold for open conflict.
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In a speech at a premier defence forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore in May 2024, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr said the death of any Filipino by a wilful act in the disputed waters could be considered close to an act of war.
Strong signalling aside, such a warning inadvertently lowers the bar for conflict. It contrasts with the restrained rhetoric used by Beijing and New Delhi during their fatal 2020 encounter in the Galwan Valley, which resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese personnel.
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Marcos’ remark was almost tested the following month, when a violent incident erupted at the Second Thomas Shoal involving Filipino and Chinese sailors.
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