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US-ally trade wars
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Stephen Olson

Opinion | Southeast Asia, do not mistake Trump’s tariff defeat for a reprieve

One court loss won’t end the trade wars. But if ‘Peak Trump’ has arrived, the region’s negotiating hand may have just got stronger

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Vietnamese workers stitch apparel at a garment factory in Thai Nguyen province on July 2, 2025. Photo: AFP
The much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling on US President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement his tariff regime has been handed down.

In a sharp rebuke to his administration, the nation’s highest court has ruled that Trump’s use of the IEEPA authority was unconstitutional. Other tariffs implemented under separate statutes, such as the sector-specific Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, are unaffected.

What are the broader implications of the Supreme Court’s decision for Southeast Asia and beyond? Three points are especially noteworthy:

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First, the practical impact – at least in terms of the tariff levels levied in August 2025 – is likely to be negligible. Vietnam, for instance, should not entertain any realistic hope that its 20 per cent tariff will disappear as a result of the ruling. As this writer has previously argued, significant executive authority has been vested in the office of the US president over the decades, meaning Trump has other tariff tools at his disposal.
US President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address at the Capitol on Tuesday. Photo: Getty Images/TNS
US President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address at the Capitol on Tuesday. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

Given telltale signals during Supreme Court oral arguments last November, Trump’s trade officials were fully prepared for the likelihood of an adverse ruling. Now that it has come to pass, they will simply move forward to recreate the tariff regime under one or more alternative authorities, such as Section 301 or Section 232. Indeed, Trump wasted little time after the ruling in announcing a global 10 per cent tariff (later increased to 15 per cent) under a separate authority: Section 122.

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