Japan’s top diplomat heads to Philippines with South China Sea top of mind

Japan’s top diplomat is heading to the Philippines this week for talks expected to focus on maritime tensions in the South China Sea and Tokyo’s strategic role in the region. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi’s stop in Manila on Thursday is part of a nine-day diplomatic tour of the Middle East and Asia that began last Saturday, with stops in Israel, the Palestinian territories, Qatar and India. His talks with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro are expected to review developments under their decade-old “strengthened strategic partnership”, explore Manila’s agenda as this year’s Asean chair and touch upon security cooperation amid China’s growing maritime presence. At last year’s East Asia Summit in Malaysia, Japan reiterated its opposition to any unilateral attempts to alter the status quo in the South China Sea through force or coercion. Motegi said at the time that Tokyo was “seriously concerned” about rising tensions, calling on all parties to resolve disputes peacefully and respect the 2016 arbitral ruling that rebutted Beijing’s expansive South China Sea claims. China has rejected that ruling and asserts sovereignty over nearly the entire waterway, overlapping with several other Southeast Asian claimants – including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Tensions between Beijing and Manila have sharpened over the past year following repeated confrontations marked by the use of water cannons, alleged risky manoeuvres and maritime collisions. Analysts say Motegi’s visit signals Tokyo’s expectation that Manila, as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, will keep maritime security high on the bloc’s agenda. It will be challenging for Manila to use its position as the chair to pursue its interest in the South China Sea Abdul Rahman Yaacob, security analyst “It will be challenging for Manila to use its position as the chair to pursue its interest in the South China Sea without any pushback,” said security analyst Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a non-resident fellow with the Australian National University. He noted that Asean had a lot on its plate already with Cambodia-Thailand border tensions, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar and navigating US-China tensions. “From my engagements with Filipino officials, I know Manila understands this situation and is working on balancing its strategic and security concerns, but also those of other Asean members,” he added. Cracking the code Japan also expects the Philippines to take the lead in advancing talks between Asean and China on the long-delayed South China Sea Code of Conduct, according to Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, president of the Philippine Association of Chinese Studies. “The aspiration of the Philippines is to conclude it next year,” he said of the code, which is a proposed binding pact to regulate behaviour in the contested waters. Progress would depend on “the relationship with China” and consensus among Asean members, said Pitlo, who is also a research fellow at the Manila-based Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress policy think tank. An existing 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties served as a non-binding framework to manage tensions, he said, but Manila “wants a document with more teeth, and Japan supports that”. Tokyo supported Asean centrality, sought to preserve legal clarity on maritime issues and aimed to prevent regional positions being watered down under external pressure, said Arnaud Leveau, an assistant professor of geopolitics at Paris Dauphine University. “Japan’s bet is not on Manila taking risks, but on Manila keeping Asean functional in an increasingly polarised Indo-Pacific,” he told This Week in Asia. Thursday’s trip will mark Motegi’s first visit to Manila as foreign minister under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who appointed him last October. Motegi previously held the post from 2019 to 2021. Noting that the Philippines had been diversifying its defence alliances in recent years, Pitlo said Manila would welcome Japan taking a more active role in regional security. “The Philippines became the first market of Japanese defence exports,” he said, referring to Manila’s purchase of air surveillance radar systems in late 2023. “And the Philippines and Malaysia are among the recipients of official security assistance from Japan.” Convergence of interest Japan sees a clear convergence of strategic interests with Manila in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and views the Philippines’ Asean chairmanship as a chance to advance Tokyo’s goal of preserving maritime stability on both fronts, according to Yaacob. “As Asean chair, Manila could advance Japanese strategic interests to maintain maritime stability in the South China Sea and around Taiwan,” he said. Beijing views Taiwan as part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control. Most countries do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but the US and others oppose any attempt to take it by force. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo spiked late last year after Takaichi remarked on Japan’s potential role in a hypothetical conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China has responded with condemnation, banning seafood imports, restricting exports of dual-use commercial and military goods and on Wednesday announcing an anti-dumping investigation into chipmaking material from Japan. Tokyo and Manila recently stepped up defence cooperation through a Reciprocal Access Agreement, which entered into force in September, following its signing a year earlier. The pact lays out a legal framework for joint military activities, including humanitarian missions and disaster relief, allowing armed forces to operate on each other’s territory if needed. Yaacob said the agreement “demonstrates a shared security concern and a close defence relation”, noting that it would help both countries to manage contingencies such as “refugees fleeing any military conflict in Taiwan”. But the pact notably avoided creating an “alliance entanglement” between the two countries, Leveau said. “It strengthens deterrence by presence and preparedness, while stopping short of formal collective defence commitments,” he said. “Crucially, the Philippines will likely keep this agreement outside Asean frameworks, to avoid politicising its chairmanship or alienating more cautious member states.”

Japan’s top diplomat heads to Philippines with South China Sea top of mind

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The talks are likely to focus on Manila’s push for a South China Sea code with ‘teeth’ as this year’s Asean chair, analysts say

The talks are likely to focus on Manila’s push for a South China Sea code with ‘teeth’ as this year’s Asean chair, analysts say