Balikatan 2026: US, Japan, Philippines flex military muscle amid China tensions

It took less than six minutes for Japan’s Type 88 missile to find its mark, a decommissioned Philippine warship 75km (47 miles) off the coast of Ilocos Norte. The US-made Tomahawk took rather longer to hit its target, some 630km (390 miles) away. It was, analysts say, a pointed display of resolve: Japanese, American and Filipino troops bringing this year’s Balikatan joint exercises to a thunderous close with a volley of missiles fired from sites in the far northern Philippines. The Tomahawk cruise missile launched from a US Army Typhon system marked the first operational firing of the controversial launcher since it was deployed on Philippine soil more than two years ago. Japan’s test firing, meanwhile, was swiftly condemned by China as Tokyo’s first overseas “offensive missile” launch in eight decades and evidence of its rising “neo-militarism”. “The message of the exercise is clear,” said Chris Gardiner, chief executive of the Institute for Regional Security NGO in Canberra. “‘Not today’ – now is not the time to use force against the Philippines or to change the status quo around Taiwan.” Beijing regards Taiwan as its own territory to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not formally recognise the island as independent, though Washington is committed to supplying it with defensive weapons and opposes any forcible takeover. Balikatan, named for a Filipino term meaning “shoulder to shoulder”, drew roughly 17,000 troops this year: 10,000 Americans, around 1,400 Japanese, 400 Australians and the remainder from the Philippines and a growing roster of observer and partner nations. The three-week exercise spanned air, land and sea drills, weaving together long-range precision fires, drone operations, coastal defence and joint command-and-control in ways that experts say reflect how modern warfare is actually fought. “That’s where modern operations are heading,” said Andy Perry, a naval mine-warfare and maritime geospatial specialist who previously served in the Australian navy. “Sharing data across systems and between allied nations is key.” Perry said the real significance of Balikatan 2026 lay not in any single weapons system, but in the level of integration achieved: linking sensors, shooters and decision making across multiple domains and multiple flags. The US was the central enabler, he said, providing long-range fires, advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and the command-and-control architecture underpinning the whole enterprise. Launchers such as the Typhon and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System demonstrated a deliberate focus on distributed, mobile strike capability, Perry added, referring to forces that are hard to find, hard to target and harder still to neutralise. For the Philippines specifically, the exercise was about building a credible, layered territorial defence, he said – stitching together coastal guns, land forces and maritime situational awareness into something approaching a coherent whole. Australia’s involvement, meanwhile, reflected a shift from observer to contributor, Perry said, with its 400-strong contingent focused on interoperability, planning integration and coalition coordination. The Typhon factor No system has drawn more attention, or diplomatic fire, than the Typhon launcher. Capable of firing SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles with ranges exceeding 240km and 2,500km respectively, the land-based platform’s reach extends across much of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. China has protested against its deployment, accusing Manila and Washington of stoking regional tensions. Arnaud Leveau, a professor of geopolitics at Paris Dauphine University, said the Typhon’s operational debut at Balikatan was “particularly significant”, illustrating what he described as “the re-emergence of intermediate-range strike capabilities” in the region following the collapse of Cold War-era arms control frameworks. “Rather than concentrating force, the emphasis is placed on dispersion, mobility and precision,” Leveau said. “This approach is designed to complicate an adversary’s operational planning by increasing uncertainty and raising the cost of any potential action.” Sasha Chhabra, a Taipei-based security analyst, said Balikatan’s multinational character was itself a deterrent, acting as a demonstration that “democracies will stand together as military allies” when it counts. “The Typhon is a critically important asymmetric platform,” she said, citing also the US’ newer Precision Strike Missile, currently in development. “If deployed at scale, systems like these would present an almost insurmountable deterrent to Chinese aggression.” For Vincent Kyle Parada, a former Philippine Navy defence analyst, Balikatan 2026 was above all a “validation exercise”: a chance for those forces taking part to stress test readiness and refine the employment concepts behind a new generation of capabilities. “Mobility is difficult, whether on an island like Taiwan or an archipelago like the Philippines,” Parada said, “Defending forces need to be able to strike at targets without having to be close to them. That’s why the Typhon’s extended range is so crucial.” The drills’ emphasis on anti-air and anti-ship capabilities reflected a recognition of what an armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific would actually demand, he said. Defending forces need to be able to strike at targets without having to be close to them Vincent Kyle Parada, defence analyst With talks reportedly under way on establishing an ammunition depot in Luzon, he suggested the Philippines could be moving towards a “missile-centric defence posture”, though he stressed that this was “pure speculation and deduction on my part”. Defence analyst Justin Kyle Malarayap, a visiting assistant professor at Arellano University in Manila, argued that this year’s exercise was “important for the Philippines as it familiarises itself with the complexities tied to the addition of more participants”. “In an alliance, it is necessary to expose command rigidity early when coordinating with allies in tactical, operational and strategic capacities,” he said. Japan’s growing participation also reflects a broader trend towards greater integration among regional partners in collective defence activities, according to Perry. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo soared in November following remarks about Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who said Japan might militarily intervene in a cross-strait conflict. ‘Networked security’ For all its firepower, the recently concluded Balikatan exercise also carried a more nuanced diplomatic message, according to Leveau. He said the drills were contributing to “the gradual structuring of a networked security architecture” across the wide region – one intended to reassure US allies and partners “concerned about coercion”, even as it simultaneously raised anxieties in Beijing about “strategic pressure”. Many Southeast Asian nations were watching carefully, seeking security assurances without being locked into a binary alignment they could not afford politically, he said. “The key issue lies in maintaining a balance between deterrence and dialogue,” Leveau said. “Military signalling must be complemented by credible diplomatic channels in order to prevent miscalculation and unintended escalation.”

Balikatan 2026: US, Japan, Philippines flex military muscle amid China tensions

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say this year’s drills, which stress tested a new generation of mobile strike capabilities, were a pointed display of resolve

Analysts say this year’s drills, which stress tested a new generation of mobile strike capabilities, were a pointed display of resolve