India’s dilemma in the Maldives: is it time to deal with Chinese influence?
As Beijing continues to expand its presence in the strategically important archipelago and beyond, rival New Delhi is pondering its options
The Maldives is one of the world’s most geographically dispersed countries, as well as the smallest Asian country by both land area and population, with around 428,000 inhabitants. But it is the geography of the Maldives that makes it important in the increasingly contested Arabian Sea part of the Indian Ocean. The Maldives is spread over 1,192 coral islands – with an average elevation of about 1.5m – grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls spanning more than 90,000 sq km, making it a nation of 99 per cent water.
The atoll chain is the visible part of a 960km-long submarine ridge running north to south that makes it almost a wall to navigation from the eastern side of the Indian Ocean into the western side. At the southern and northern part of this island chain are the only two passages through which ships can pass safely. These are the designated sea lines of communication (SLOCs) through which Middle Eastern oil transits to countries like Japan and China. The busier northern SLOC passes between India’s Minicoy Island and the northernmost Maldivian atoll. This geography gives the Maldives a strategic importance far beyond its size and heft.
Though Britain shut down its Maldivian bases in 1978, the United States still maintains a powerful presence in the region, in Diego Garcia, about 1,800km from the southern tip of India. Diego Garcia is just 35 sq km but enough facilities have been built on it to adequately project US power in the region. It has two parallel 3,700m runways, expansive parking aprons for heavy bombers such as the supersonic B-1 Lancer and the cold war workhorse, the B-52 Stratofortress, 20 new anchorages in the lagoon, a deepwater pier, port facilities for the largest naval vessels in the American or British fleet, aircraft hangars, maintenance buildings and an air terminal, a huge fuel storage area, and billeting and messing facilities for almost 30,000 combatants and support personnel. The US will most certainly not view kindly any permanent positioning of China in the region.
The Maldives went through a period of political uncertainty from 1965 to 1978 when Maumoon Abdul Gayoom began his 30-year rule as president. Gayoom was a staunch friend of India and in 1988 an Indian military intervention saved his presidency from a small army of Sri Lankan Tamil mercenaries employed by Gayoom’s predecessor. Gayoom ruled with a heavy hand and opposition to him kept growing.