Andy Xie

Andy Xie

Dr Andy Xie is a Shanghai-based independent economist specialising in China and Asia, and writes, speaks and consults on global economics and financial markets. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 and was managing director and head of the firm’s Asia-Pacific economics team until 2006. Prior to that he spent two years with Macquarie Bank in Singapore, where he was an associate director in corporate finance. He also spent five years as an economist with the World Bank. He was voted one of the 50 most influential persons in finance by Bloomberg magazine in 2013.

Latest from Andy Xie

The View | Why China is cooling, not deflating, the property market bubble

Beijing depends on China’s property bubble for revenue and has been managing it by keeping a lid on inflation. But the yuan’s soft peg to the dollar means Washington’s decisions – and addiction to stimulus – have an impact on China’s asset prices.

Beijing depends on China’s property bubble for revenue and has been managing it by keeping a lid on inflation. But the yuan’s soft peg to the dollar means Washington’s decisions – and addiction to stimulus – have an impact on China’s asset prices.

Why China is cooling, not deflating, the property market bubble
18 Mar 2021 - 5:55AM
Opinion | Population decline could end China’s civilisation as we know it. When will Beijing wake up to the crisis?

The seeds of China’s demographic crisis were sown by a development strategy that relied on cheap, plentiful migrant workers. Their children don’t want to be like them and the property bubble is only making things worse.

The seeds of China’s demographic crisis were sown by a development strategy that relied on cheap, plentiful migrant workers. Their children don’t want to be like them and the property bubble is only making things worse.

Population decline could end China’s civilisation as we know it. When will Beijing wake up to the crisis?
3 Mar 2021 - 9:15AM
The View | Why the GameStop stock frenzy is likely to end in financial crisis

The drama unfolding around GameStop is a tale of the internet levelling the playing field between at-home retail investors and Wall Street. The US stock market may become as retail dominated, and as volatile, as the Chinese market.

The drama unfolding around GameStop is a tale of the internet levelling the playing field between at-home retail investors and Wall Street. The US stock market may become as retail dominated, and as volatile, as the Chinese market.

Why the GameStop stock frenzy is likely to end in financial crisis
1 Feb 2021 - 7:45PM
Opinion | Covid-19 market bubbles, a creation of the distorted global economy, cannot last

The devastation wrought by Covid-19 on the real economy hasn’t stopped stock and property markets reaching new highs. Despite the Fed’s best efforts, such asset bubbles cannot be sustained. Could US political instability deflate the bubbles?

The devastation wrought by Covid-19 on the real economy hasn’t stopped stock and property markets reaching new highs. Despite the Fed’s best efforts, such asset bubbles cannot be sustained. Could US political instability deflate the bubbles?

Covid-19 market bubbles, a creation of the distorted global economy, cannot last
21 Jan 2021 - 4:34AM
Opinion | China joins other governments in seeing the dark side of big tech. Or has it?

The world is just waking up to the reality that tech businesses want to make money above anything else, like other companies. However, in China, it’s government backing that has allowed tech monopolies to develop and thrive in the first place

The world is just waking up to the reality that tech businesses want to make money above anything else, like other companies. However, in China, it’s government backing that has allowed tech monopolies to develop and thrive in the first place

China joins other governments in seeing the dark side of big tech. Or has it?
24 Dec 2020 - 2:16AM
Opinion | How property-hungry Chinese millennials and shadow banking could fuel a financial crisis

Millennials are borrowing heavily to invest in property, counting on the government to keep property prices buoyant. However, the rise of shadow banking means the government lacks the levers it has historically pulled to prevent a debt crisis.

Millennials are borrowing heavily to invest in property, counting on the government to keep property prices buoyant. However, the rise of shadow banking means the government lacks the levers it has historically pulled to prevent a debt crisis.

How property-hungry Chinese millennials and shadow banking could fuel a financial crisis
1 Dec 2020 - 10:59AM
Opinion | How a Joe Biden presidency would offer US-China relations a brief window of hope

Biden is likely to roll back tariffs and give China a short respite. To reset ties, however, Beijing needs to offer concrete action on tackling climate change and market reciprocity as a down payment.

Biden is likely to roll back tariffs and give China a short respite. To reset ties, however, Beijing needs to offer concrete action on tackling climate change and market reciprocity as a down payment.

How a Joe Biden presidency would offer US-China relations a brief window of hope
22 Oct 2020 - 4:15AM
Opinion | The real economic reforms China needs to become less dependent on exports

Despite talk of a new ‘dual circulation’ strategy, China’s slowing economy will only become more dependent on exports unless it overhauls its investment-led growth model to truly boost consumption.

Despite talk of a new ‘dual circulation’ strategy, China’s slowing economy will only become more dependent on exports unless it overhauls its investment-led growth model to truly boost consumption.

The real economic reforms China needs to become less dependent on exports
11 Sep 2020 - 9:31AM
Opinion | Beware: the US-China technology war is about to burst the tech bubble

Tech stocks are overvalued, thanks to central banks. And as the impact of the US-China tech war becomes increasingly obvious and the pandemic cools demand for hi-tech goods, a chill will be thrown over stock markets.

Tech stocks are overvalued, thanks to central banks. And as the impact of the US-China tech war becomes increasingly obvious and the pandemic cools demand for hi-tech goods, a chill will be thrown over stock markets.

Beware: the US-China technology war is about to burst the tech bubble
28 Aug 2020 - 4:38AM
Opinion | How the US Federal Reserve created a financial opioid crisis in the West

By targeting asset prices to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is again creating an asset bubble. The US central bank’s loose monetary policy, more than China, is really to blame for the US’ troubles now.

By targeting asset prices to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is again creating an asset bubble. The US central bank’s loose monetary policy, more than China, is really to blame for the US’ troubles now.

How the US Federal Reserve created a financial opioid crisis in the West
17 Jul 2020 - 5:06AM
Opinion | Coronavirus lessons for China: prioritise health care and quality of life over economic growth

Instead of the mindless pursuit of debt-fuelled GDP growth, China should focus on revamping its scandal-ridden health care sector.

Instead of the mindless pursuit of debt-fuelled GDP growth, China should focus on revamping its scandal-ridden health care sector.

Coronavirus lessons for China: prioritise health care and quality of life over economic growth
12 May 2020 - 6:51AM
Opinion | How the greedy ruling elite failed us, by putting profit before pandemic preparedness

The global ruling elite, who ignored expert warnings of a pandemic, are even now proposing stimulus measures to prop up markets, rather than truly help people. Expect any attempts to align supply chains to health care or welfare imperatives to meet fierce resistance from vested interests.

The global ruling elite, who ignored expert warnings of a pandemic, are even now proposing stimulus measures to prop up markets, rather than truly help people. Expect any attempts to align supply chains to health care or welfare imperatives to meet fierce resistance from vested interests.

How the greedy ruling elite failed us, by putting profit before pandemic preparedness
6 Apr 2020 - 1:12AM
The View | Three ways the coronavirus could trigger a global financial crisis – and why central bankers are to blame

Heavily leveraged tourism-related companies such as airlines, the commercial real estate sector and the residential property market are all vulnerable pressure points. Cutting interest rates will not help these sectors, but it will boost speculation.

Heavily leveraged tourism-related companies such as airlines, the commercial real estate sector and the residential property market are all vulnerable pressure points. Cutting interest rates will not help these sectors, but it will boost speculation.

Three ways the coronavirus could trigger a global financial crisis – and why central bankers are to blame
12 Mar 2020 - 7:10AM
Opinion | Luck may be the only thing standing between the coronavirus and a US stock market crash

The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and ripple effect on global supply chains will hit the global economy hard, even if a recession can be avoided. If the outbreak cannot be contained by summer, a crash worse than the 2008 crisis awaits America’s inflated asset markets.

The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and ripple effect on global supply chains will hit the global economy hard, even if a recession can be avoided. If the outbreak cannot be contained by summer, a crash worse than the 2008 crisis awaits America’s inflated asset markets.

Luck may be the only thing standing between the coronavirus and a US stock market crash
18 Feb 2020 - 3:53AM
Opinion | How the coronavirus crisis is exposing the ills of the China model

An all-powerful government means a swift and effective quarantine but the same hierarchical system caused critical delays in containing the coronavirus. Likewise, the China model, so effective when the economy was nascent, has outlived its usefulness.

An all-powerful government means a swift and effective quarantine but the same hierarchical system caused critical delays in containing the coronavirus. Likewise, the China model, so effective when the economy was nascent, has outlived its usefulness.

How the coronavirus crisis is exposing the ills of the China model
1 Mar 2020 - 5:35PM
Opinion | With US trade deal, China kicks the can of economic reforms down the road – at greater cost to itself

Chinese’s promises to buy more from the US simply do not add up, while US tariffs remain on many Chinese imports and the tech war continues unabated. Chinese hopes to lift market sentiments with the deal will be short-lived.

Chinese’s promises to buy more from the US simply do not add up, while US tariffs remain on many Chinese imports and the tech war continues unabated. Chinese hopes to lift market sentiments with the deal will be short-lived.

With US trade deal, China kicks the can of economic reforms down the road – at greater cost to itself
17 Feb 2020 - 3:28PM
Opinion | The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system
6 Dec 2019 - 7:35AM
Opinion | To restore peace to Hong Kong, big business, developers, homeowners and the taxman must all accept the pain of drastic economic reform

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

To restore peace to Hong Kong, big business, developers, homeowners and the taxman must all accept the pain of drastic economic reform
28 Oct 2019 - 6:29AM
Opinion | US-China trade war: both sides have reason to compromise, but their differences remain intractable

China has its hands full with pork price inflation and Hong Kong unrest, while Trump needs happy investors and farmers ahead of the presidential election. As long as China can’t commit to structural economic reforms and the US won’t ease its tech war, any compromise will be limited.

China has its hands full with pork price inflation and Hong Kong unrest, while Trump needs happy investors and farmers ahead of the presidential election. As long as China can’t commit to structural economic reforms and the US won’t ease its tech war, any compromise will be limited.

US-China trade war: both sides have reason to compromise, but their differences remain intractable
19 Sep 2019 - 3:19AM
Opinion | Can Trump keep the US stock market bubble from popping as the world economy slows?

The US president has so far managed to keep the market buoyant by offering economic hope to calm nerves. As China’s economy continues to slow, and more multinationals begin to feel the pain, the tipping point may not be too far off.

The US president has so far managed to keep the market buoyant by offering economic hope to calm nerves. As China’s economy continues to slow, and more multinationals begin to feel the pain, the tipping point may not be too far off.

Can Trump keep the US stock market bubble from popping as the world economy slows?
26 Aug 2019 - 1:00AM
Opinion | Hong Kong and Singapore, so similar yet so different – it’s all about housing, money and politics

Political power is supreme in Singapore, while money dominates politics in Hong Kong. Why can’t Beijing see how the dreams of Hong Kong youth are being crushed?

Political power is supreme in Singapore, while money dominates politics in Hong Kong. Why can’t Beijing see how the dreams of Hong Kong youth are being crushed?

Hong Kong and Singapore, so similar yet so different – it’s all about housing, money and politics
1 Aug 2019 - 12:01PM
Opinion | As the trade war reduces China’s US exports, structural reforms – not inflating away debt – are the right response to economic disengagement

Beijing should not respond to lost exports to the US by taking the easy route and boosting credit supply. This would only benefit the elite owners of highly leveraged assets and ignore China’s already massive property bubble.

Beijing should not respond to lost exports to the US by taking the easy route and boosting credit supply. This would only benefit the elite owners of highly leveraged assets and ignore China’s already massive property bubble.

As the trade war reduces China’s US exports, structural reforms – not inflating away debt – are the right response to economic disengagement
11 Jul 2019 - 4:00AM
Opinion | China must draw the right lessons from Japan’s trade war with the US, and develop its technology

The Plaza Accord, which pushed up the yen, didn’t break the Japanese economy, which was in a good place to begin with. But China, which has a lower average income, can’t afford to make the same policy mistakes as Japan.

The Plaza Accord, which pushed up the yen, didn’t break the Japanese economy, which was in a good place to begin with. But China, which has a lower average income, can’t afford to make the same policy mistakes as Japan.

China must draw the right lessons from Japan’s trade war with the US, and develop its technology
20 Jun 2019 - 3:36AM
The View | China plays a waiting game on the economy – and bets everything on the belt and road plan

China’s stimulus measures have stabilised the financial system and helped struggling local governments, rather than kick-started another growth cycle. Expect similar measures in the coming years, as Beijing seeks to maintain economic stability.

China’s stimulus measures have stabilised the financial system and helped struggling local governments, rather than kick-started another growth cycle. Expect similar measures in the coming years, as Beijing seeks to maintain economic stability.

China plays a waiting game on the economy – and bets everything on the belt and road plan
9 May 2019 - 10:21PM
Opinion | Forget the cold war. US-China rivalry won’t end in triumph for either side

In the battle between the two essentially capitalist economic models – China’s state capitalism and America’s financial capitalism – neither is immune from a collapse of the other, and both are currently facing a number of challenges.

In the battle between the two essentially capitalist economic models – China’s state capitalism and America’s financial capitalism – neither is immune from a collapse of the other, and both are currently facing a number of challenges.

Forget the cold war. US-China rivalry won’t end in triumph for either side
19 Apr 2019 - 1:50AM
Opinion | Markets aren’t really recovering from the US-China trade war – this is just a dead cat bounce

The change in the Fed’s policy posture has more bearing on global financial health than a resolution to the trade war. Either way, China and the US have worrying debt problems, and Chinese consumers won’t be able to boost the economy.

The change in the Fed’s policy posture has more bearing on global financial health than a resolution to the trade war. Either way, China and the US have worrying debt problems, and Chinese consumers won’t be able to boost the economy.

Markets aren’t really recovering from the US-China trade war – this is just a dead cat bounce
5 Mar 2019 - 5:04AM
Opinion | China isn’t looking to grow its economy but, rather, is waiting for it to recover. Good luck with that

Beijing’s stimulus measures are meant not to revive economic growth but only to maintain stability. China seems to think it can wait for good growth numbers to return, like the last time. But this strategy won’t work this time.

Beijing’s stimulus measures are meant not to revive economic growth but only to maintain stability. China seems to think it can wait for good growth numbers to return, like the last time. But this strategy won’t work this time.

China isn’t looking to grow its economy but, rather, is waiting for it to recover. Good luck with that
21 Jan 2019 - 3:06PM
Opinion | How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways

The stock sell-off in the US and elsewhere and the sharp decline in property prices all add up to more debt trouble at a time when debt is already sky-high. A repeat of the global financial crisis of a decade ago seems certain.

The stock sell-off in the US and elsewhere and the sharp decline in property prices all add up to more debt trouble at a time when debt is already sky-high. A repeat of the global financial crisis of a decade ago seems certain.

How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways
24 Dec 2018 - 7:03AM
Opinion | China’s belt and road plan is a lesson for the West in how to reframe the global growth model, to focus on infrastructure for the developing world

Western foreign aid focuses on poverty alleviation and is misguided. The West has been sensitive about China’s belt and road plan, when it should see the merit of giving billions in infrastructure aid to the developing world.

Western foreign aid focuses on poverty alleviation and is misguided. The West has been sensitive about China’s belt and road plan, when it should see the merit of giving billions in infrastructure aid to the developing world.

China’s belt and road plan is a lesson for the West in how to reframe the global growth model, to focus on infrastructure for the developing world
30 Nov 2018 - 6:17AM
Opinion | Why the trade war will usher in a long, drawn-out bear market, with stocks, bonds, credit and property all at risk

The unravelling of the US-China relationship that has sustained leveraged speculation will reverse trends investors have become used to and will plunge the world into a prolonged structural bear market.

The unravelling of the US-China relationship that has sustained leveraged speculation will reverse trends investors have become used to and will plunge the world into a prolonged structural bear market.

Why the trade war will usher in a long, drawn-out bear market, with stocks, bonds, credit and property all at risk
15 Nov 2018 - 5:17AM