Andy Xie

Andy Xie

Dr Andy Xie is a Shanghai-based independent economist specialising in China and Asia, and writes, speaks and consults on global economics and financial markets. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 and was managing director and head of the firm’s Asia-Pacific economics team until 2006. Prior to that he spent two years with Macquarie Bank in Singapore, where he was an associate director in corporate finance. He also spent five years as an economist with the World Bank. He was voted one of the 50 most influential persons in finance by Bloomberg magazine in 2013.

Latest from Andy Xie

Opinion | How China’s zero-Covid policy is tipping the world into recession

Persistent lockdowns and hardening political rhetoric suggest China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 will stay in place. Collapsing demand, falling middle-class income, supply chain disruptions and a weakening yuan will have consequences that ripple across the globe.

Persistent lockdowns and hardening political rhetoric suggest China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 will stay in place. Collapsing demand, falling middle-class income, supply chain disruptions and a weakening yuan will have consequences that ripple across the globe.

16 May 2022 - 8:45AM
Macroscope | In the end, reality may force China to compromise on its ‘zero-Covid’ policy

China’s ‘zero-Covid’ approach is disrupting supply chains and could cause damage well beyond the country’s borders. While economic costs alone will not bring a change of direction when politics is driving policy, the reality of the virus’ infectiousness may compel Beijing to tolerate certain levels of infection.

China’s ‘zero-Covid’ approach is disrupting supply chains and could cause damage well beyond the country’s borders. While economic costs alone will not bring a change of direction when politics is driving policy, the reality of the virus’ infectiousness may compel Beijing to tolerate certain levels of infection.

13 Apr 2022 - 4:30PM
The View | Ukraine crisis could spell a drawn-out war that will hit financial speculators hard

With no swift resolution to the Ukraine war in sight and a risk of the conflict spreading, markets must wake up to the reality of massive energy and food supply shocks. The likelihood that financial bubbles will burst, triggering a global recession, is growing by the day.

With no swift resolution to the Ukraine war in sight and a risk of the conflict spreading, markets must wake up to the reality of massive energy and food supply shocks. The likelihood that financial bubbles will burst, triggering a global recession, is growing by the day.

9 Mar 2022 - 10:15PM
Opinion | Coming era of stagflation and wealth destruction will be boon to working class

While investors tremble at the prospect of falling asset prices and tighter monetary policy, the working class is set to benefit from rising wages. Strong wage growth could drive consumption and prop up the global economy while overvalued stocks and real estate tumble.

While investors tremble at the prospect of falling asset prices and tighter monetary policy, the working class is set to benefit from rising wages. Strong wage growth could drive consumption and prop up the global economy while overvalued stocks and real estate tumble.

26 Jan 2022 - 9:30PM
The View | Markets ignore risks of conflict over Ukraine and Taiwan at their peril

Financial markets seem in denial as China and Russia seek to roll back US dominance and reassert their own sphere of influence. Any military confrontation would be a shock to the global economy. In particular, war over Taiwan could have devastating repercussions.

Financial markets seem in denial as China and Russia seek to roll back US dominance and reassert their own sphere of influence. Any military confrontation would be a shock to the global economy. In particular, war over Taiwan could have devastating repercussions.

24 Dec 2021 - 1:30AM
Opinion | How US inflation spiral could tip superpower rivalry in China’s favour

China’s financial system could soon be strong enough to withstand a stronger currency, leaving the US vulnerable to a currency shock. Floating the renminbi then could tip the US deeper into inflation and turmoil while giving Beijing free rein in international affairs.

China’s financial system could soon be strong enough to withstand a stronger currency, leaving the US vulnerable to a currency shock. Floating the renminbi then could tip the US deeper into inflation and turmoil while giving Beijing free rein in international affairs.

26 Nov 2021 - 1:30AM
Opinion | How China’s coal crisis exposes the hypocrisy of the West’s carbon footprint

In cutting coal production but not consumption, the West is simply outsourcing its carbon footprint to China and other coal-dependent emerging markets.

In cutting coal production but not consumption, the West is simply outsourcing its carbon footprint to China and other coal-dependent emerging markets.

18 Oct 2021 - 8:45AM
The View | How the Evergrande debt crisis could force China’s hand on reforming government

An Evergrande collapse is unlikely to bring down China’s financial system, but unresolved problems could still threaten social stability. Bloated government, dependence on land sales revenue, shadow banking and inefficient urbanisation all need urgent reform.

An Evergrande collapse is unlikely to bring down China’s financial system, but unresolved problems could still threaten social stability. Bloated government, dependence on land sales revenue, shadow banking and inefficient urbanisation all need urgent reform.

4 Oct 2021 - 7:32PM
Opinion | Beijing’s ‘common prosperity’ push shows how its China model is taking shape

Together with other recent changes, the future of a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics is emerging. Tight state control of successful private firms, recycling more wealth back into society and limits on content creation all appear to be here to stay.

Together with other recent changes, the future of a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics is emerging. Tight state control of successful private firms, recycling more wealth back into society and limits on content creation all appear to be here to stay.

3 Sep 2021 - 2:26AM
Opinion | The Trojan horse threat behind China’s tutoring and tech crackdown amid US rivalry

Both industries have become increasingly powerful and could be capable of destabilising society and Communist Party rule as China engages in an existential contest with the US.

Both industries have become increasingly powerful and could be capable of destabilising society and Communist Party rule as China engages in an existential contest with the US.

2 Aug 2021 - 3:30AM
The View | From towering debt to bitcoin’s boom, why 2021 is the year of living dangerously

Vaccination is unshackling major developed economies and money is flowing into real economies, sparking overheating and inflation. This may spell the end of the speculative boom in financial markets, cryptocurrencies and NFTs.

Vaccination is unshackling major developed economies and money is flowing into real economies, sparking overheating and inflation. This may spell the end of the speculative boom in financial markets, cryptocurrencies and NFTs.

3 Jun 2021 - 2:26AM
Opinion | Inflation is coming, and the world economy’s fate depends on the Fed

China’s entry into the global economy took away the pricing power of labour everywhere else. That drove a disinflationary trend for decades. But inflation is coming back, as monetary largesse becomes a mantra among major economies.

China’s entry into the global economy took away the pricing power of labour everywhere else. That drove a disinflationary trend for decades. But inflation is coming back, as monetary largesse becomes a mantra among major economies.

19 May 2021 - 3:26AM
The View | Why China is cooling, not deflating, the property market bubble

Beijing depends on China’s property bubble for revenue and has been managing it by keeping a lid on inflation. But the yuan’s soft peg to the dollar means Washington’s decisions – and addiction to stimulus – have an impact on China’s asset prices.

Beijing depends on China’s property bubble for revenue and has been managing it by keeping a lid on inflation. But the yuan’s soft peg to the dollar means Washington’s decisions – and addiction to stimulus – have an impact on China’s asset prices.

18 Mar 2021 - 5:55AM
Opinion | Population decline could end China’s civilisation as we know it. When will Beijing wake up to the crisis?

The seeds of China’s demographic crisis were sown by a development strategy that relied on cheap, plentiful migrant workers. Their children don’t want to be like them and the property bubble is only making things worse.

The seeds of China’s demographic crisis were sown by a development strategy that relied on cheap, plentiful migrant workers. Their children don’t want to be like them and the property bubble is only making things worse.

3 Mar 2021 - 9:15AM
The View | Why the GameStop stock frenzy is likely to end in financial crisis

The drama unfolding around GameStop is a tale of the internet levelling the playing field between at-home retail investors and Wall Street. The US stock market may become as retail dominated, and as volatile, as the Chinese market.

The drama unfolding around GameStop is a tale of the internet levelling the playing field between at-home retail investors and Wall Street. The US stock market may become as retail dominated, and as volatile, as the Chinese market.

1 Feb 2021 - 7:45PM
Opinion | Covid-19 market bubbles, a creation of the distorted global economy, cannot last

The devastation wrought by Covid-19 on the real economy hasn’t stopped stock and property markets reaching new highs. Despite the Fed’s best efforts, such asset bubbles cannot be sustained. Could US political instability deflate the bubbles?

The devastation wrought by Covid-19 on the real economy hasn’t stopped stock and property markets reaching new highs. Despite the Fed’s best efforts, such asset bubbles cannot be sustained. Could US political instability deflate the bubbles?

21 Jan 2021 - 4:34AM
Opinion | China joins other governments in seeing the dark side of big tech. Or has it?

The world is just waking up to the reality that tech businesses want to make money above anything else, like other companies. However, in China, it’s government backing that has allowed tech monopolies to develop and thrive in the first place

The world is just waking up to the reality that tech businesses want to make money above anything else, like other companies. However, in China, it’s government backing that has allowed tech monopolies to develop and thrive in the first place

24 Dec 2020 - 2:16AM
Opinion | How property-hungry Chinese millennials and shadow banking could fuel a financial crisis

Millennials are borrowing heavily to invest in property, counting on the government to keep property prices buoyant. However, the rise of shadow banking means the government lacks the levers it has historically pulled to prevent a debt crisis.

Millennials are borrowing heavily to invest in property, counting on the government to keep property prices buoyant. However, the rise of shadow banking means the government lacks the levers it has historically pulled to prevent a debt crisis.

1 Dec 2020 - 10:59AM
Opinion | How a Joe Biden presidency would offer US-China relations a brief window of hope

Biden is likely to roll back tariffs and give China a short respite. To reset ties, however, Beijing needs to offer concrete action on tackling climate change and market reciprocity as a down payment.

Biden is likely to roll back tariffs and give China a short respite. To reset ties, however, Beijing needs to offer concrete action on tackling climate change and market reciprocity as a down payment.

22 Oct 2020 - 4:15AM
Opinion | The real economic reforms China needs to become less dependent on exports

Despite talk of a new ‘dual circulation’ strategy, China’s slowing economy will only become more dependent on exports unless it overhauls its investment-led growth model to truly boost consumption.

Despite talk of a new ‘dual circulation’ strategy, China’s slowing economy will only become more dependent on exports unless it overhauls its investment-led growth model to truly boost consumption.

11 Sep 2020 - 9:31AM
Opinion | Beware: the US-China technology war is about to burst the tech bubble

Tech stocks are overvalued, thanks to central banks. And as the impact of the US-China tech war becomes increasingly obvious and the pandemic cools demand for hi-tech goods, a chill will be thrown over stock markets.

Tech stocks are overvalued, thanks to central banks. And as the impact of the US-China tech war becomes increasingly obvious and the pandemic cools demand for hi-tech goods, a chill will be thrown over stock markets.

28 Aug 2020 - 4:38AM
Opinion | How the US Federal Reserve created a financial opioid crisis in the West

By targeting asset prices to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is again creating an asset bubble. The US central bank’s loose monetary policy, more than China, is really to blame for the US’ troubles now.

By targeting asset prices to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is again creating an asset bubble. The US central bank’s loose monetary policy, more than China, is really to blame for the US’ troubles now.

17 Jul 2020 - 5:06AM
Opinion | Coronavirus lessons for China: prioritise health care and quality of life over economic growth

Instead of the mindless pursuit of debt-fuelled GDP growth, China should focus on revamping its scandal-ridden health care sector.

Instead of the mindless pursuit of debt-fuelled GDP growth, China should focus on revamping its scandal-ridden health care sector.

12 May 2020 - 6:51AM
Opinion | How the greedy ruling elite failed us, by putting profit before pandemic preparedness

The global ruling elite, who ignored expert warnings of a pandemic, are even now proposing stimulus measures to prop up markets, rather than truly help people. Expect any attempts to align supply chains to health care or welfare imperatives to meet fierce resistance from vested interests.

The global ruling elite, who ignored expert warnings of a pandemic, are even now proposing stimulus measures to prop up markets, rather than truly help people. Expect any attempts to align supply chains to health care or welfare imperatives to meet fierce resistance from vested interests.

6 Apr 2020 - 1:12AM
The View | Three ways the coronavirus could trigger a global financial crisis – and why central bankers are to blame

Heavily leveraged tourism-related companies such as airlines, the commercial real estate sector and the residential property market are all vulnerable pressure points. Cutting interest rates will not help these sectors, but it will boost speculation.

Heavily leveraged tourism-related companies such as airlines, the commercial real estate sector and the residential property market are all vulnerable pressure points. Cutting interest rates will not help these sectors, but it will boost speculation.

12 Mar 2020 - 7:10AM
Opinion | Luck may be the only thing standing between the coronavirus and a US stock market crash

The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and ripple effect on global supply chains will hit the global economy hard, even if a recession can be avoided. If the outbreak cannot be contained by summer, a crash worse than the 2008 crisis awaits America’s inflated asset markets.

The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and ripple effect on global supply chains will hit the global economy hard, even if a recession can be avoided. If the outbreak cannot be contained by summer, a crash worse than the 2008 crisis awaits America’s inflated asset markets.

18 Feb 2020 - 3:53AM
Opinion | How the coronavirus crisis is exposing the ills of the China model

An all-powerful government means a swift and effective quarantine but the same hierarchical system caused critical delays in containing the coronavirus. Likewise, the China model, so effective when the economy was nascent, has outlived its usefulness.

An all-powerful government means a swift and effective quarantine but the same hierarchical system caused critical delays in containing the coronavirus. Likewise, the China model, so effective when the economy was nascent, has outlived its usefulness.

1 Mar 2020 - 5:35PM
Opinion | With US trade deal, China kicks the can of economic reforms down the road – at greater cost to itself

Chinese’s promises to buy more from the US simply do not add up, while US tariffs remain on many Chinese imports and the tech war continues unabated. Chinese hopes to lift market sentiments with the deal will be short-lived.

Chinese’s promises to buy more from the US simply do not add up, while US tariffs remain on many Chinese imports and the tech war continues unabated. Chinese hopes to lift market sentiments with the deal will be short-lived.

17 Feb 2020 - 3:28PM
Opinion | The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

6 Dec 2019 - 7:35AM
Opinion | To restore peace to Hong Kong, big business, developers, homeowners and the taxman must all accept the pain of drastic economic reform

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

28 Oct 2019 - 6:29AM