Andy Xie

Andy Xie

Dr Andy Xie is a Shanghai-based independent economist specialising in China and Asia, and writes, speaks and consults on global economics and financial markets. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 and was managing director and head of the firm’s Asia-Pacific economics team until 2006. Prior to that he spent two years with Macquarie Bank in Singapore, where he was an associate director in corporate finance. He also spent five years as an economist with the World Bank. He was voted one of the 50 most influential persons in finance by Bloomberg magazine in 2013.

Latest from Andy Xie

Opinion | The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

6 Dec 2019 - 7:35AM

By fuelling a market rally every time talks stall, the Fed has prolonged the trade war and made the asset bubble bigger. If a crisis erupts outside the US or China, the bubble may burst – with disastrous consequences for the world.

The Federal Reserve is prolonging the trade war, keeping the biggest financial bubble in history going – and risking the entire global system
Opinion | To restore peace to Hong Kong, big business, developers, homeowners and the taxman must all accept the pain of drastic economic reform

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

28 Oct 2019 - 6:29AM

High land prices, the currency peg and low taxes are just some flaws in Hong Kong’s deeply unfair economic system, which needs to be overhauled. Big businesses and existing homeowners must make painful sacrifices if the city’s problems are to be solved.

To restore peace to Hong Kong, big business, developers, homeowners and the taxman must all accept the pain of drastic economic reform
Opinion | US-China trade war: both sides have reason to compromise, but their differences remain intractable

China has its hands full with pork price inflation and Hong Kong unrest, while Trump needs happy investors and farmers ahead of the presidential election. As long as China can’t commit to structural economic reforms and the US won’t ease its tech war, any compromise will be limited.

19 Sep 2019 - 3:19AM

China has its hands full with pork price inflation and Hong Kong unrest, while Trump needs happy investors and farmers ahead of the presidential election. As long as China can’t commit to structural economic reforms and the US won’t ease its tech war, any compromise will be limited.

US-China trade war: both sides have reason to compromise, but their differences remain intractable
Opinion | Can Trump keep the US stock market bubble from popping as the world economy slows?

The US president has so far managed to keep the market buoyant by offering economic hope to calm nerves. As China’s economy continues to slow, and more multinationals begin to feel the pain, the tipping point may not be too far off.

26 Aug 2019 - 1:00AM

The US president has so far managed to keep the market buoyant by offering economic hope to calm nerves. As China’s economy continues to slow, and more multinationals begin to feel the pain, the tipping point may not be too far off.

Can Trump keep the US stock market bubble from popping as the world economy slows?
Opinion | Hong Kong and Singapore, so similar yet so different – it’s all about housing, money and politics

Political power is supreme in Singapore, while money dominates politics in Hong Kong. Why can’t Beijing see how the dreams of Hong Kong youth are being crushed?

1 Aug 2019 - 12:01PM

Political power is supreme in Singapore, while money dominates politics in Hong Kong. Why can’t Beijing see how the dreams of Hong Kong youth are being crushed?

Hong Kong and Singapore, so similar yet so different – it’s all about housing, money and politics
Opinion | As the trade war reduces China’s US exports, structural reforms – not inflating away debt – are the right response to economic disengagement

Beijing should not respond to lost exports to the US by taking the easy route and boosting credit supply. This would only benefit the elite owners of highly leveraged assets and ignore China’s already massive property bubble.

11 Jul 2019 - 4:00AM

Beijing should not respond to lost exports to the US by taking the easy route and boosting credit supply. This would only benefit the elite owners of highly leveraged assets and ignore China’s already massive property bubble.

As the trade war reduces China’s US exports, structural reforms – not inflating away debt – are the right response to economic disengagement
Opinion | China must draw the right lessons from Japan’s trade war with the US, and develop its technology

The Plaza Accord, which pushed up the yen, didn’t break the Japanese economy, which was in a good place to begin with. But China, which has a lower average income, can’t afford to make the same policy mistakes as Japan.

20 Jun 2019 - 3:36AM

The Plaza Accord, which pushed up the yen, didn’t break the Japanese economy, which was in a good place to begin with. But China, which has a lower average income, can’t afford to make the same policy mistakes as Japan.

China must draw the right lessons from Japan’s trade war with the US, and develop its technology
The View | China plays a waiting game on the economy – and bets everything on the belt and road plan

China’s stimulus measures have stabilised the financial system and helped struggling local governments, rather than kick-started another growth cycle. Expect similar measures in the coming years, as Beijing seeks to maintain economic stability.

9 May 2019 - 10:21PM

China’s stimulus measures have stabilised the financial system and helped struggling local governments, rather than kick-started another growth cycle. Expect similar measures in the coming years, as Beijing seeks to maintain economic stability.

China plays a waiting game on the economy – and bets everything on the belt and road plan
Opinion | Forget the cold war. US-China rivalry won’t end in triumph for either side

In the battle between the two essentially capitalist economic models – China’s state capitalism and America’s financial capitalism – neither is immune from a collapse of the other, and both are currently facing a number of challenges.

19 Apr 2019 - 1:50AM

In the battle between the two essentially capitalist economic models – China’s state capitalism and America’s financial capitalism – neither is immune from a collapse of the other, and both are currently facing a number of challenges.

Forget the cold war. US-China rivalry won’t end in triumph for either side
Opinion | Markets aren’t really recovering from the US-China trade war – this is just a dead cat bounce

The change in the Fed’s policy posture has more bearing on global financial health than a resolution to the trade war. Either way, China and the US have worrying debt problems, and Chinese consumers won’t be able to boost the economy.

5 Mar 2019 - 5:04AM

The change in the Fed’s policy posture has more bearing on global financial health than a resolution to the trade war. Either way, China and the US have worrying debt problems, and Chinese consumers won’t be able to boost the economy.

Markets aren’t really recovering from the US-China trade war – this is just a dead cat bounce
Opinion | China isn’t looking to grow its economy but, rather, is waiting for it to recover. Good luck with that

Beijing’s stimulus measures are meant not to revive economic growth but only to maintain stability. China seems to think it can wait for good growth numbers to return, like the last time. But this strategy won’t work this time.

21 Jan 2019 - 3:06PM

Beijing’s stimulus measures are meant not to revive economic growth but only to maintain stability. China seems to think it can wait for good growth numbers to return, like the last time. But this strategy won’t work this time.

China isn’t looking to grow its economy but, rather, is waiting for it to recover. Good luck with that
Opinion | How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways

The stock sell-off in the US and elsewhere and the sharp decline in property prices all add up to more debt trouble at a time when debt is already sky-high. A repeat of the global financial crisis of a decade ago seems certain.

24 Dec 2018 - 7:03AM

The stock sell-off in the US and elsewhere and the sharp decline in property prices all add up to more debt trouble at a time when debt is already sky-high. A repeat of the global financial crisis of a decade ago seems certain.

How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways
Opinion | China’s belt and road plan is a lesson for the West in how to reframe the global growth model, to focus on infrastructure for the developing world

Western foreign aid focuses on poverty alleviation and is misguided. The West has been sensitive about China’s belt and road plan, when it should see the merit of giving billions in infrastructure aid to the developing world.

30 Nov 2018 - 6:17AM

Western foreign aid focuses on poverty alleviation and is misguided. The West has been sensitive about China’s belt and road plan, when it should see the merit of giving billions in infrastructure aid to the developing world.

China’s belt and road plan is a lesson for the West in how to reframe the global growth model, to focus on infrastructure for the developing world
Opinion | Why the trade war will usher in a long, drawn-out bear market, with stocks, bonds, credit and property all at risk

The unravelling of the US-China relationship that has sustained leveraged speculation will reverse trends investors have become used to and will plunge the world into a prolonged structural bear market.

15 Nov 2018 - 5:17AM

The unravelling of the US-China relationship that has sustained leveraged speculation will reverse trends investors have become used to and will plunge the world into a prolonged structural bear market.

Why the trade war will usher in a long, drawn-out bear market, with stocks, bonds, credit and property all at risk
Opinion | Can US-China trade war rivalry reverse the worst economic trends in both countries?

Both China and the US have built their economies on financialisation while ignoring the people’s concerns, and the trade war will hasten the reckoning both countries need.

21 Sep 2018 - 6:08AM

Both China and the US have built their economies on financialisation while ignoring the people’s concerns, and the trade war will hasten the reckoning both countries need.

Can US-China trade war rivalry reverse the worst economic trends in both countries?
Hype of China technology stocks risks a replay of the 2000 US dotcom crash

With so much money from both government and retail investors already sunk into a business that relies more on false hope than sound fundamentals, the pain of a crash will be severe.

17 Aug 2018 - 6:59PM

With so much money from both government and retail investors already sunk into a business that relies more on false hope than sound fundamentals, the pain of a crash will be severe.

Hype of China technology stocks risks a replay of the 2000 US dotcom crash
Opinion | How yuan devaluation inflates China’s liquidity bubble and kicks structural reform down the road

The trade war is an opportunity for China to make long-overdue economic changes, such as tax cuts, rather than resorting to pumping in liquidity yet again.

9 Aug 2018 - 9:48AM

The trade war is an opportunity for China to make long-overdue economic changes, such as tax cuts, rather than resorting to pumping in liquidity yet again.

How yuan devaluation inflates China’s liquidity bubble and kicks structural reform down the road
Escalating the US trade war is not in China’s interest. Reform is what it must do

China could easily absorb the tariffs the US has proposed so far, but may face disaster if the conflict escalates. The best course for Beijing is to use the opportunity to enact the economic reforms it must carry out eventually.

20 Jul 2018 - 10:30PM

China could easily absorb the tariffs the US has proposed so far, but may face disaster if the conflict escalates. The best course for Beijing is to use the opportunity to enact the economic reforms it must carry out eventually.

Escalating the US trade war is not in China’s interest. Reform is what it must do
Three reasons not to blame Trump when the global ‘free’ trade order collapses

Blaming the erratic US president for the unravelling of ‘free’ trade obscures the fact that other economies – including the EU’s – are more mercantilist, the current system is unsustainable and poorer workers have not benefited from it.

13 Jun 2018 - 2:02AM

Blaming the erratic US president for the unravelling of ‘free’ trade obscures the fact that other economies – including the EU’s – are more mercantilist, the current system is unsustainable and poorer workers have not benefited from it.

Three reasons not to blame Trump when the global ‘free’ trade order collapses
Hong Kong’s monetary authority should raise interest rates now to buffer the market – while it can

The Hong Kong property market is set to stumble, and the US may return its interest rates to the ‘90s-era 5 per cent average. The HKMA should therefore raise its own interest rates; not doing so only serves Hong Kong’s property cartel.

3 Jul 2018 - 9:47PM

The Hong Kong property market is set to stumble, and the US may return its interest rates to the ‘90s-era 5 per cent average. The HKMA should therefore raise its own interest rates; not doing so only serves Hong Kong’s property cartel.

Hong Kong’s monetary authority should raise interest rates now to buffer the market – while it can
Why China should walk away from a trade war, and toss the US some concessions while it’s at it

China can afford a trade war but the country’s new global role calls for a more magnanimous posture, which could include opening up its markets further.

10 Apr 2018 - 7:42PM

China can afford a trade war but the country’s new global role calls for a more magnanimous posture, which could include opening up its markets further.

Why China should walk away from a trade war, and toss the US some concessions while it’s at it
Why the US doesn’t have the stomach or the strategy for a full-blown trade war with East Asia

The US has neither the stomach for a recession nor a coherent industrial policy, the two elements needed to engage in a real trade war

23 Mar 2018 - 12:58PM

The US has neither the stomach for a recession nor a coherent industrial policy, the two elements needed to engage in a real trade war

Why the US doesn’t have the stomach or the strategy for a full-blown trade war with East Asia
If you think stock market volatility is bad now, just wait for next year

The current market volatility is the result of a battle between optimistic mobile internet-led investors and monetary policy. Liquidity tightening will, however, eventually burst the bubble.

18 Feb 2018 - 5:42PM

The current market volatility is the result of a battle between optimistic mobile internet-led investors and monetary policy. Liquidity tightening will, however, eventually burst the bubble.

If you think stock market volatility is bad now, just wait for next year
The global asset bubble will burst – the only question is when, and how bad it will be
China needs a new growth model to wean itself off property market highs

The government must develop demand-side support for the economy when the housing bubble is deflating, and nurture a growth cycle powered by productivity. This means a shift away from commerce to innovation

20 Jul 2018 - 2:55PM

The government must develop demand-side support for the economy when the housing bubble is deflating, and nurture a growth cycle powered by productivity. This means a shift away from commerce to innovation

China needs a new growth model to wean itself off property market highs
The bubble economy is set to burst, and US elections may well be the trigger
China’s crackdown on grey rhinos won’t reduce its debt burden, it will only redistribute it

The government’s resolve to reduce financial leverage does not extend to cleaning up its bloated state sector, or making systemic changes. This means the sound and fury is unlikely to last

20 Jul 2018 - 2:55PM

The government’s resolve to reduce financial leverage does not extend to cleaning up its bloated state sector, or making systemic changes. This means the sound and fury is unlikely to last

China’s crackdown on grey rhinos won’t reduce its debt burden, it will only redistribute it
Penniless retirees and teen zombies: how hot tech has China and the world hurtling into a dark age
Why Hong Kong’s property market won’t crash – this time
China must reform at home to ensure its belt and road plan succeeds abroad