Analysis & Opinion
China’s outbreak response system has evolved to serve a population with a large number of unvaccinated elderly and address regional disparities in social services and healthcare. The strategy is characteristic of Chinese policymakers’ willingness to incur short-term high costs to advance long-term development goals.
Authorities in China want to ensure every citizen has access to a nucleic acid test booth within a 15-minute walk, while vaccination of elderly people lags.
A respite from wearing masks in summer makes sense, although we should still wear them on crowded public transport. Such a move does not mean dropping our guard. It is more a statement of confidence.
Persistent lockdowns and hardening political rhetoric suggest China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 will stay in place. Collapsing demand, falling middle-class income, supply chain disruptions and a weakening yuan will have consequences that ripple across the globe.
After two years of Covid-19, the return to ‘normal’ is underwhelming: new cases are still emerging, borders remain closed, and businesses continue to struggle. While John Lee may be focused on uniting our city, there is much work to be done to reconnect – and catch up – with the rest of the world.
While the mounting costs of China’s zero-Covid policy have become an important driver of global markets, there is more to this story. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn is an equally important factor in the global sell-off, and Chinese stocks are early in pricing in bad news.
Allowing state media more leeway to report on what is happening in the city would help curb mounting anger.
As we attempt to move on from Covid-19, we cannot forget that if governments had acted more quickly to contain the outbreak, millions of lives could have been saved. While Hong Kong needs to reevaluate the zero-Covid strategy that served it well in 2021, globally governments must rethink ‘go-it-alone’ approaches.
The longer Hong Kong is closed off, the greater the risk of being surpassed by rivals and fading into economic irrelevance. If this means a further delay in reopening the border with the mainland, so be it.
China is the one country with the dynamism and heft to revitalise the global economy – but doing so would require a major U-turn on its virus suppression policy.
Beijing eventually relented on its Big Tech crackdown and is likely to do the same with its virus suppression strategy. Just don’t expect a sudden change – too much political capital is at stake.
Unsurprisingly, China’s Omicron wave has cut growth, dragging down emerging market stock values. But current valuations are a reflection of recent challenges rather than a sign of things to come, as China looks to ease monetary policy and step up its vaccination drive.
Words of Chinese president do nothing to raise hopes of an early reopening of the border with Hong Kong, which strives to remain an international finance hub.
On top of the obvious but potentially short-term stagflationary forces in play are far more structural, long-term issues that amplify the danger of protracted inflation and sharply reduced economic growth.
China is not as medically prepared as many Western countries were before they opened up, with large numbers of elderly yet to have a third vaccine dose. A middle-of-the-road approach, with fewer draconian lockdowns while keeping many social restrictions, could help boost the faltering economy.
Around the world, not only are millions resigning from their jobs, there has been an uptick in business registrations in some countries. The collective reassessment of business priorities, profits and employees’ role in them should prompt employers to create and sustain deeper meaning to retain to staff.
After China contained the Wuhan outbreak by locking down the city and the rest of the province in 2020, it began to apply the formula to other areas.
China is entering a new normal of “dynamic zero” Covid-19 policy, in which citizens are subject to frequent nucleic-acid tests regardless of a person’s likelihood of contracting the coronavirus.
If the CCP wants to continue enjoying a high degree of faith by Chinese nationals, officials need to lock up their paranoia amid the Omicron wave of Covid-19.
To safeguard Hong Kong’s value as a global finance, trade and transport nexus, it must reverse the loss of people with the expertise, experience and international connections vital to the city’s financial and entrepreneurial health.