The sudden demise of Kim Jong-il has drastically increased the probabilities of a regime collapse in Pyongyang and the reunification of the two Koreas. Should either scenario become a reality, China will face the most difficult geopolitical challenge since the disintegration of the Soviet Union two decades ago.

It is thus understandable that Chinese leaders are now trying to do everything possible to prop up the Kim dynasty. Maintaining the status quo will avert a strategic nightmare for China because a collapse of North Korea will not only unleash a flood of refugees into its northeast, but also, more critically, trigger a process that will eventually lead to the reunification of a divided Korean Peninsula and the loss of a buffer state for China.