bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Dewey Sim

With vaccination programmes being rolled out by countries around the world, it seem the tables have finally turned in the fight against the novel coronavirus.
The grim milestones of 100 million infections and 2 million deaths may have been passed, but along with the vaccines comes the hope of herd immunity, a future world in which Covid-19 has been slowly throttled out of existence as it runs out of hosts to infect.
Or at least that’s one rosy scenario. Unfortunately, experts are warning it may be a little too rosy.
Another scenario, offered by Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) emergencies programme, is that vaccine coverage will not be enough to stop transmission of the virus, at least not for the “foreseeable future”. Some experts go even further, cautioning the virus may never be eradicated.
The “bar for success” according to Ryan, is not herd immunity but “reducing the capacity of this virus to kill, to put people in hospital, to destroy our economic and social lives”.


Production and distribution delays at major vaccine producers including Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca, along with the news the European Union is considering tightening export restrictions on vaccines made in the bloc, have raised concerns over whether even the world’s richest countries will meet their vaccination targets. The European Union, Canada and Singapore were all hit by Pfizer’s announcement that shipments would be delayed due to an upgrade of a factory in Belgium, while the EU took a second blow when AstraZeneca said its first-quarter deliveries would be cut by more than half due to production problems.
The EU’s response to that news – which was to threaten tightening export controls on vaccines produced in the bloc – raised another uncomfortable scenario. A world of vaccine nationalism, where there are only enough shots for the most powerful.
Coronavirus: could Singapore’s vaccine drive become a victim of its own success?
SHORT-TERM HERD IMMUNITY? ‘WHOLLY UNREALISTIC’
While problems with production lines have caught recent headlines, experts say these can be overcome – though probably not in the short-term.
Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong’s school of public health, said it was not unusual for manufacturers to overestimate their production rate.
“It is a competitive market and every manufacturer would like to maximise their market share, and underestimating supply could lead to vaccine batches being sold at lower prices,” he said.
Meanwhile Teo Yik Ying, the dean of the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said production delays should not be a long-term problem.


“We should remember that these developers have put in considerable resources to establish and modify their production chains to mass produce Covid-19 vaccines,” he said. The “inevitable” delays, he added, should not be viewed as failures but as “necessary” steps to allow more sustainable and efficient production lines to be established.
Teo said there would eventually be enough doses to cover everyone who wished to be vaccinated, but the real challenge lay in when this could be achieved.
“I anticipate the number of approved vaccines will continue to rise over the next few months, and this means there will be more pharmaceutical production lines coming online to produce doses in large quantities,” he said. “This will allow the world to eventually achieve the number of doses necessary to inoculate the majority of the world’s population.”
However, he said, the time frame would be “longer-term”.
Why vaccine inequality in Asia threatens the world’s recovery
Lawrence Gostin, a professor at Georgetown University who heads the WHO Collaborating Centre on National and Global Health Law, said it was “wholly unrealistic” to expect the world to achieve herd immunity in the short term.
Low-income countries were unlikely to be able to complete mass vaccination programmes before 2024, he said, owing to costs and vaccine scarcity.
“Even then, the virus is likely to become endemic,” he added.
A recent study by The Economist Intelligence Unit said that among Asian and Pacific economies, only Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan were expected to have “widespread” vaccination rates – equating to at least 60 per cent of their populations – by the fourth quarter of this year.
Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea would accomplish this by the second quarter of 2021, while lower-income nations such as Myanmar and Cambodia – whose GDP per capita is just one fortieth of Singapore’s – might take until 2025 or beyond to reach this goal.


BIGGER HURDLES AHEAD
Even if distribution problems are a short-term matter, in the longer-term bigger hurdles to herd immunity loom, including logistical problems in transporting vaccines and a general hesitancy among populations to have the vaccines.
These problems will face even the richest economies. A survey in Hong Kong this week found that more than half of residents did not intend to take Covid-19 jabs.
Aside from vaccine sceptics, some people are medically ineligible to receive the vaccine while others may be hard to reach because of geographical or socio-economic reasons, said Teo. The WHO currently recommends people with allergies, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and children below 16 should not take the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
Jeremy Rossman, a senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, said vaccine costs could end up being “prohibitively expensive”, even for the wealthiest nations and warned that logistical problems in distribution could slow the global vaccination drive.


The International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations estimates that a typical vaccine manufacturing plant uses 9,000 materials sourced from 300 suppliers across 30 countries.
Then comes the challenge of distribution. A report by logistics and shipping giant DHL said that delivering 10 billion vaccine doses would require an estimated 15,000 flights, 200,000 movements by pallet shippers, and 15 million deliveries of coolers packed with vials.
This is because some vaccines, including the Pfizer-BioNTech one, need to be stored at extremely low temperatures.
This poses particular problems for poorer countries without adequate cold-storage, such as the Philippines, where government officials this month said the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine would only be given in Metro Manila and other highly urban areas.


Even in the United States, the newly inaugurated Biden administration has hinted that bringing vaccines to the hard-to-reach and underserved rural communities could be problematic, promising to ramp up vaccination in those areas by building mobile clinics.
Given such problems, Rossman said achieving global herd immunity was highly unlikely: “At present, we have nowhere near enough vaccine or logistical capacity to be able to embark on an eradication campaign”.
Teo agreed, saying that even building herd immunity in any single country would be “challenging”, regardless of its wealth.
Finally, there remains lingering fears that new variants of the virus – either those that have emerged in Britain and South Africa or possibly ones yet to be discovered – might be more resistant to the current crop of vaccines or that people’s immunity will fade over time.


Gostin from Georgetown University said this meant that people would need boosters or even new vaccines periodically, which could complicate the global vaccine effort “enormously”.
That, he said, would leave the world facing a “monumental task”.
“I can foresee that rich countries in Asia, Europe and North America will have close to herd immunity by the end of the year, but much of the world will be left far behind,” he said.
“That will have enormous economic, health, and diplomatic consequences.”


Coronavirus: what if vaccines aren’t enough for herd immunity?

An Indonesian doctor with a bottle of the Sinovac coronavirus vaccine. Photo: Reuters

This Week in Asia

Health & Environment

News

Asia

Coronavirus

World

Production problems for Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca give an inkling of the difficulties ahead as countries try to vaccinate their way to freedom
Some experts warn it is ‘wholly unrealistic’ to expect herd immunity in the foreseeable future. Others say Covid-19 may never be eradicated


Some of the world’s top experts warn it is ‘wholly unrealistic’ to expect herd immunity in the foreseeable future. Others say Covid-19 may never be eradicated.


Coronavirus: what if vaccines aren’t enough for herd immunity?

Production problems for Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca give an inkling of the difficulties ahead as countries try to vaccinate their way to freedom Some experts warn it is ‘wholly unrealistic’ to expect herd immunity in the foreseeable future. Others say Covid-19 may never be eradicated

Production problems for Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca give an inkling of the difficulties ahead as countries try to vaccinate their way to freedom

Some experts warn it is ‘wholly unrealistic’ to expect herd immunity in the foreseeable future. Others say Covid-19 may never be eradicated