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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, seen on a screen outside a brokerage in Tokyo on January 21, touched its highest in a century this month. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

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United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

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United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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A video of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plays on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 12. Powell has rejected the Trump administration’s claims of wrongdoing against him, calling them a pretext for punishing him for not cutting interest rates as fast as US President Donald Trump desired. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28. Photo: AFP
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

The politics around digital currencies have extended into the long-running battle for supremacy between the world’s major currencies.

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A pedestrian walks in front of a currency mural on a shop shutter in Hong Kong on December 2024. Photo: Antony Dickson
Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Eric Trump, executive vice-president of the Trump Organisation, attends the Bitcoin Asia conference, in Hong Kong, on August 29. Photo: Reuters
Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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A man checks the latest stock exchange data on a computer screen at his shop in Shanghai on October 30. Photo: EPA
Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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Customers flock to buy vegetarian food during the Vegetarian Festival at a market in Chinatown in Bangkok on October 21. The International Monetary Fund has projected Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2025 at 2 per cent and expects the gross domestic product to sharply slow to 1.6 per cent for 2026. Photo: EPA
United States

Macroscope | Has Trump 2.0 really been a boon to stock markets and the economy?

Although asset prices performed strongly this year and there has been no recession, Trump’s second term is a Rubicon-crossing moment for the US and global economy.

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Trade

Macroscope | Asia’s trading powerhouses are more Trump-proof than many feared

High US tariffs not only did not cripple export-oriented economies like South Korea, thanks to the AI boom, but they also pushed policymakers to embark on reforms.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble are overdone

While many believe the stock market is in an AI-induced bubble, there are factors that paint a more optimistic picture.

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on October 22. Just 10 companies account for over half the rise in the value of US stocks. Photo: Reuters
China inflation

Macroscope | Forget inflation, deflation poses bigger risk to Asia’s economies

While Asia has not had inflation worries for some time, its economic future has become more closely tied to China’s, with all that entails.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Global uncertainty driving gold prices higher despite bubble fears

Even with stock markets surging, the price of gold is hitting new records as investors seek out stability.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Why the cost of buying economic growth is destined to rise

The apparent resilience of the global economy in the face of a series of shocks comes amid dangerously high debt levels.

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A woman walks past signs displaying prices in US dollars in Caracas, Venezuela, on June 2. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | 4 reasons Japan’s yen safe haven trade is a distant memory

While the Japanese currency’s reputation as a safe haven was always overblown, the stability that supported it is now a thing of the past.

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People walk in a shopping area in Tokyo’s Shinjuku on September 11. Japan is experiencing cost-push inflation – price rises driven by the weak yen and exacerbated by the cost of imported raw materials, food and energy. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Tide may finally be turning in China’s battle against deflation

With economic indicators offering reasons to hope, the only question is how quickly and decisively Beijing can revive domestic demand.

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Cryptocurrency

Macroscope | In the crypto vs gold struggle, new battle lines are being drawn

The finance world is in flux, with stablecoin issuer Tether investing heavily in the metal it has been trying to usurp as a primary means of exchange.

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Diplomacy

Macroscope | Shanghai spirit for new world order needs to be matched by the West

SCO summit’s vision can’t be implemented without the requisite monetary and financial systems in place. The West must play a role if the world is not to fragment into blocs.

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President Xi Jinping makes a speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit 2025 at the Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Centre in Tianjin on September 1. Photo: Xinhua
United States

Macroscope | Why China is the only actor standing against Trump’s radical agenda

Beijing has taken advantage of weaknesses in Trump’s agenda and forced him to back down while others give him a free pass.

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts during inauguration ceremonies in the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington on January 20. Photo: Getty Images
China stock market

Macroscope | Why investors need not fear bubble in Chinese stock market

While there is a disconnect between China’s ailing economy and its buoyant stock market, years of bearishness are only now dissipating.

Japan

Macroscope | World can’t afford Japan adding to infrastructure project wars

Tokyo’s recently announced Indian Ocean and Africa economic zone initiative could put it on course to overlap and clash with Beijing.

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