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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Workers change the price of fuel at a petrol station in Manila on March 17. Photo: AFP
Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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People queue to buy petrol in Hanoi on March 10 after Vietnam’s trade ministry called on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home to save fuel amid disruptions in supply and price surges triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with US President Donald Trump, speaks to members of the military aboard the USS George Washington aircraft carrier docked at the American naval base in Yokosuka, Japan on October 28, 2025. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2016. The prospect of a prolonged dollar bear market has major implications for the global economy and markets. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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A man walks past ATM booths for Japan’s mega banks, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, left, and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, in Tokyo, on February 6. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Molten gold made from jewelry is poured into a mold to produce a gold bar at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery in Vienna, Austria on February 3. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, seen on a screen outside a brokerage in Tokyo on January 21, touched its highest in a century this month. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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A video of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plays on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 12. Powell has rejected the Trump administration’s claims of wrongdoing against him, calling them a pretext for punishing him for not cutting interest rates as fast as US President Donald Trump desired. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28. Photo: AFP
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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An employee debugs the AI-powered live-streaming machines at a Rexso workshop on December 8 in Huangshan in China’s Anhui province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

The politics around digital currencies have extended into the long-running battle for supremacy between the world’s major currencies.

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Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Eric Trump, executive vice-president of the Trump Organisation, attends the Bitcoin Asia conference, in Hong Kong, on August 29. Photo: Reuters
Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang in Belem, Brazil on November 5, ahead of Cop30. Photo: AFP
South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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