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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A man walks past an electronic board displaying 10-year Japanese government bonds, an index of long-term interest rates in the Tokyo bond market and the foreign exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar along a street in Tokyo on May 18. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

Too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities. Unified bond markets in Europe and Asia could offer safe options for savings to flow into.

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Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

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Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

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2026 Xi-Trump summit

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Children greet Chinese President Xi Jinping (second right) and US President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a press conference by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell following a rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 18. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

Japanese authorities are promoting the domestic corporate bond market as an alternative for firms seeking funding without losing control.

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India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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A man counts Indian rupee notes at a roadside currency exchange stall in the old quarters of Delhi on February 2. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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An oil tanker unloads crude oil at the port in Qingdao, in eastern Shandong province, on April 7. Photo: AFP
Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

Iranians work as smoke rises from an oil refinery struck in Tehran, on March 8, amid joint Israeli-US attacks. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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People queue to buy petrol in Hanoi on March 10 after Vietnam’s trade ministry called on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home to save fuel amid disruptions in supply and price surges triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with US President Donald Trump, speaks to members of the military aboard the USS George Washington aircraft carrier docked at the American naval base in Yokosuka, Japan on October 28, 2025. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2016. The prospect of a prolonged dollar bear market has major implications for the global economy and markets. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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A man walks past ATM booths for Japan’s mega banks, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, left, and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, in Tokyo, on February 6. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Molten gold made from jewelry is poured into a mold to produce a gold bar at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery in Vienna, Austria on February 3. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, seen on a screen outside a brokerage in Tokyo on January 21, touched its highest in a century this month. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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