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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Workers put switches and connectors on solar panels after they come out of automated framing at a ReNew solar panel manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India, on August 21, 2025. Photo: AP
India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

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Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

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Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang in Belem, Brazil on November 5, ahead of Cop30. Photo: AFP
South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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Customers flock to buy vegetarian food during the Vegetarian Festival at a market in Chinatown in Bangkok on October 21. The International Monetary Fund has projected Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2025 at 2 per cent and expects the gross domestic product to sharply slow to 1.6 per cent for 2026. Photo: EPA
United States

Macroscope | Has Trump 2.0 really been a boon to stock markets and the economy?

Although asset prices performed strongly this year and there has been no recession, Trump’s second term is a Rubicon-crossing moment for the US and global economy.

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Trade

Macroscope | Asia’s trading powerhouses are more Trump-proof than many feared

High US tariffs not only did not cripple export-oriented economies like South Korea, thanks to the AI boom, but they also pushed policymakers to embark on reforms.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble are overdone

While many believe the stock market is in an AI-induced bubble, there are factors that paint a more optimistic picture.

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on October 22. Just 10 companies account for over half the rise in the value of US stocks. Photo: Reuters
China inflation

Macroscope | Forget inflation, deflation poses bigger risk to Asia’s economies

While Asia has not had inflation worries for some time, its economic future has become more closely tied to China’s, with all that entails.

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A girl selects snacks at a store in Mengzi, in southwest Yunnan province, on October 15. China’s consumer prices showed further signs of stabilisation in September as core inflation reached its highest level in 19 months. Photo: Xinhua
Commodities

Macroscope | Global uncertainty driving gold prices higher despite bubble fears

Even with stock markets surging, the price of gold is hitting new records as investors seek out stability.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Why the cost of buying economic growth is destined to rise

The apparent resilience of the global economy in the face of a series of shocks comes amid dangerously high debt levels.

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Japan

Macroscope | 4 reasons Japan’s yen safe haven trade is a distant memory

While the Japanese currency’s reputation as a safe haven was always overblown, the stability that supported it is now a thing of the past.

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People walk in a shopping area in Tokyo’s Shinjuku on September 11. Japan is experiencing cost-push inflation – price rises driven by the weak yen and exacerbated by the cost of imported raw materials, food and energy. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Tide may finally be turning in China’s battle against deflation

With economic indicators offering reasons to hope, the only question is how quickly and decisively Beijing can revive domestic demand.

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An aerial view of a cargo dock in Yantai, Shandong province on August 21. Signs that deflationary pressures are easing suggest Beijing’s crackdown on oversupply and unproductive competition across a variety of industries, i.e. involution, is beginning to bear fruit. Photo: Xinhua
Cryptocurrency

Macroscope | In the crypto vs gold struggle, new battle lines are being drawn

The finance world is in flux, with stablecoin issuer Tether investing heavily in the metal it has been trying to usurp as a primary means of exchange.

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Diplomacy

Macroscope | Shanghai spirit for new world order needs to be matched by the West

SCO summit’s vision can’t be implemented without the requisite monetary and financial systems in place. The West must play a role if the world is not to fragment into blocs.

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United States

Macroscope | Why China is the only actor standing against Trump’s radical agenda

Beijing has taken advantage of weaknesses in Trump’s agenda and forced him to back down while others give him a free pass.

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts during inauguration ceremonies in the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington on January 20. Photo: Getty Images
China stock market

Macroscope | Why investors need not fear bubble in Chinese stock market

While there is a disconnect between China’s ailing economy and its buoyant stock market, years of bearishness are only now dissipating.

Japan

Macroscope | World can’t afford Japan adding to infrastructure project wars

Tokyo’s recently announced Indian Ocean and Africa economic zone initiative could put it on course to overlap and clash with Beijing.

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United States

Macroscope | 4 reasons Trump has pushed his luck on tariffs too far

The first four months of Trump’s tariffs have been a political coup, yet many vulnerabilities of the US economy have been underestimated.

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Activists protest against US President Donald Trump and his trade policies for India outside the US embassy in Kolkata on August 13. In an escalation of trade tensions between the United States and India, Trump announced additional tariffs of 25 per cent on Indian goods which would bring the total to 50 per cent. Photo: EPA
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why world must heed boy crying wolf over risk of financial crisis

Contrary to markets’ exuberance, record levels of borrowing and the growth of shadow banking pose a significant risk of a financial crisis.

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Volunteers from Pastoraloup watch over a flock of sheep in the hills above Villebois-les-Pins in central France, on July 31. Pastoraloup is a programme that supports farmers and shepherds in wolf-infested areas by providing volunteers to watch over flocks day and night. Photo: AFP
US-India relations

Macroscope | Has India really become Trump’s top target in Asia?

India might be too close to Russia for Trump’s liking, but the challenges it poses to the US pale in comparison to those posed by China.

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Climate change

Macroscope | Why force of law is world’s best hope for beating climate change

We need radical solutions reinforced by legal statutes to bolster the fight against climate change and make polluters pay.

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South Korea

Macroscope | Does Seoul’s stock market boom signal the end of the ‘Korea discount’?

Long-overdue corporate governance reforms and efforts to empower retail investors have created bullish sentiment around South Korean stocks.

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Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on July 31. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Economies are left looking for safety as animal spirits run wild

The world is crying out for systemic reforms to markets that heap investment in fashionable sectors instead of where it is needed the most.

A screen displays news of Nvidia hitting US$4 trillion in market capitalisation on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on July 9. Photo: Reuters
Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How mainland capital flight is reviving Hong Kong market’s mojo

While capital can be volatile, Hong Kong’s role as the conduit between Chinese and global finance puts its financial sector in a sweet spot.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s crusade against the Fed turning US into an emerging market

If Trump continues to challenge the independence of the US central bank, markets will have to stop giving his behaviour a free pass.

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