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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A delivery driver transports liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders in Amritsar, Punjab state, in India on March 24. Two more Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, marking a fresh set of exceptions in the chokepoint disrupted by the Middle East war. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

People with smartphones walk through the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2022. Debt stocks have reached new highs across both advanced and emerging economies. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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US President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber at the Capitol in Washington on February 24. Photo: TNS
Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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A man walks past ATM booths for Japan’s mega banks, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, left, and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, in Tokyo, on February 6. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, puts in pins marking the names of candidates who won lower house elections, at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, on February 8. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, seen on a screen outside a brokerage in Tokyo on January 21, touched its highest in a century this month. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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US President Donald Trump (right) greets leaders as he arrives for a Board of Peace charter announcement at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

A man walks past an electronic board displaying the Nikkei 225 stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on January 5. Photo: AFP
China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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An employee debugs the AI-powered live-streaming machines at a Rexso workshop on December 8 in Huangshan in China’s Anhui province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Workers put switches and connectors on solar panels after they come out of automated framing at a ReNew solar panel manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India, on August 21, 2025. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

The politics around digital currencies have extended into the long-running battle for supremacy between the world’s major currencies.

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Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang in Belem, Brazil on November 5, ahead of Cop30. Photo: AFP
South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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A cyclist rides past residential buildings in Seoul on November 11. Flat prices in the capital increased at the sharpest pace since 2018 last month while rents rose at the fastest clip on record. Photo: AFP
Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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