Investment, technological advancement and population control have transformed China’s economy – but there are signs the old economic model is losing steam. Beijing must now relax its grip and allow entrepreneurial initiative to flourish.
If the trajectory of emissions growth continues, China could see its credit rating drop six notches and billions more in debt service. China has much to gain from getting serious on carbon neutrality, and any delay would be tantamount to economic self-harm.
Unlike in 2008, Asia has weaker balance sheets and a greater dependence on exports. With debt ratings set to slide and deglobalisation a risk, Asia must reassess its export-led economic model.
The US central bank does not have a strong case for a rate cut and a looser policy. With a widely expected rate cut imminent, the Fed chief might be bowing to pressure from Donald Trump to weaken the dollar.
Political uncertainty usually means market volatility yet, since 2016, this hasn’t been the case. But whether it’s disorder in Europe or a slowdown in China, turbulence is coming and investors should be cautious or risk getting burned.