Yu Yongding

Yu Yongding

Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006.

Latest from Yu Yongding

Opinion | Why China’s slow economic growth is a bigger headache than its energy crunch and Evergrande’s debt crisis

The problems in the energy and property sectors, though serious, do not pose a systemic risk to the economy, despite the alarming news headlines. The more urgent task for Beijing is to reinvigorate growth that has slowed since 2010.

The problems in the energy and property sectors, though serious, do not pose a systemic risk to the economy, despite the alarming news headlines. The more urgent task for Beijing is to reinvigorate growth that has slowed since 2010.

23 Oct 2021 - 1:30AM
The View | China’s economic health will depend on its Covid-19 recovery

With the pandemic persisting, Beijing has been alert in applying policy remedies where needed, but its economic performance will inevitably be largely determined by the success of its fight to control the coronavirus.

With the pandemic persisting, Beijing has been alert in applying policy remedies where needed, but its economic performance will inevitably be largely determined by the success of its fight to control the coronavirus.

27 Aug 2021 - 12:30PM
Opinion | In China at least, a little inflation may not be a bad thing

The divergence in the increases in consumer and producer prices is the result of Chinese producers’ preparations for a post-pandemic surge in demand, which has yet to materialise. This lack of price pass-through has kept consumer inflation low, but squeezed the profits of downstream producers, which will ultimately undermine economic growth.

The divergence in the increases in consumer and producer prices is the result of Chinese producers’ preparations for a post-pandemic surge in demand, which has yet to materialise. This lack of price pass-through has kept consumer inflation low, but squeezed the profits of downstream producers, which will ultimately undermine economic growth.

19 Jun 2021 - 4:16AM
The View | Why China can’t afford to tighten economic policy just yet

China’s growth in 2020 was driven by fixed-asset investment and exports. This is not ideal. To achieve higher growth in 2021, China needs a larger increase in infrastructure investment, and the government may have to issue more bonds than planned.

China’s growth in 2020 was driven by fixed-asset investment and exports. This is not ideal. To achieve higher growth in 2021, China needs a larger increase in infrastructure investment, and the government may have to issue more bonds than planned.

15 Apr 2021 - 4:33PM
Macroscope | How a crackdown on illicit funds can revive the UN’s faltering 2030 agenda on sustainable development

Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals depends on cash-strapped governments finding an untapped source of financial resources. This must provide the impetus for countries to create a robust and coordinated regime to crack down on financial crimes and tax evasion.

Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals depends on cash-strapped governments finding an untapped source of financial resources. This must provide the impetus for countries to create a robust and coordinated regime to crack down on financial crimes and tax evasion.

3 Mar 2021 - 3:45PM
Opinion | Dual circulation strategy continues China’s push to open up

Dual circulation does not imply any fundamental change in the growth paradigm, and China will not turn its back on the world no matter what happens.

Dual circulation does not imply any fundamental change in the growth paradigm, and China will not turn its back on the world no matter what happens.

30 Sep 2020 - 9:16PM
Macroscope | The naysayers are wrong about China’s economy. It really is capable of growing much faster

Many Chinese economists oppose monetary and fiscal stimulus, citing factors like population ageing. But their arguments are far weaker than the case for expansion: whatever the economy’s potential, China is performing below it.

Many Chinese economists oppose monetary and fiscal stimulus, citing factors like population ageing. But their arguments are far weaker than the case for expansion: whatever the economy’s potential, China is performing below it.

9 Jan 2020 - 4:51AM
The View | China needs to arrest slowing economic growth, and it has the means to do so

The prospect of slower Chinese growth is gaining widespread acceptance, but this trend is dangerous. For the sake of China and a global economy primed for recession, Beijing must arrest the decline in GDP growth and implement a powerful stimulus package.

The prospect of slower Chinese growth is gaining widespread acceptance, but this trend is dangerous. For the sake of China and a global economy primed for recession, Beijing must arrest the decline in GDP growth and implement a powerful stimulus package.

7 Nov 2019 - 10:26PM
Opinion | Why Trump picked the wrong fight with his designation of China as a currency manipulator

The Chinese central bank’s decision to let the yuan fall below 7 per US dollar had little to do with trade or currency wars. Rather, it represented an important step towards reforming China’s inflexible exchange-rate regime.

The Chinese central bank’s decision to let the yuan fall below 7 per US dollar had little to do with trade or currency wars. Rather, it represented an important step towards reforming China’s inflexible exchange-rate regime.

5 Sep 2019 - 11:35PM
Opinion | How China can protect itself in the next phase of Donald Trump’s trade war

The Trump administration wants US companies to leave China and it is up to Beijing to persuade them to stay. It must also prepare for the possibility of a currency war, and US sanctions on Chinese financial institutions.

The Trump administration wants US companies to leave China and it is up to Beijing to persuade them to stay. It must also prepare for the possibility of a currency war, and US sanctions on Chinese financial institutions.

8 Jul 2019 - 1:00AM
Opinion | With analysts divided on China’s economic potential, Beijing should seek as high a growth rate as possible amid reforms

When setting growth targets, a too-conservative estimate could have huge consequences for China’s economy and its people. Beijing should seek as much expansion as possible – focusing on infrastructure investment – while making the necessary structural changes.

When setting growth targets, a too-conservative estimate could have huge consequences for China’s economy and its people. Beijing should seek as much expansion as possible – focusing on infrastructure investment – while making the necessary structural changes.

1 May 2019 - 8:01PM
Opinion | To jump-start China’s sluggish economy, Beijing needs to use all its fiscal and monetary policy tools

The Chinese central bank can’t devise an effective monetary policy when it is juggling too many tasks, including keeping the yuan stable. Beijing can’t obsess about currency stability when it needs to prevent a financial crisis.

The Chinese central bank can’t devise an effective monetary policy when it is juggling too many tasks, including keeping the yuan stable. Beijing can’t obsess about currency stability when it needs to prevent a financial crisis.

5 Jan 2019 - 6:23AM
Opinion | Donald Trump misread the US-China trade relationship. A rethink is not in America’s best interests

Yu Yongding says previous US governments saw the benefits of preserving the status quo on trade with China. The trade war should prompt China to recognise that buying US Treasuries instead of making domestic investments is not in its own interests.

Yu Yongding says previous US governments saw the benefits of preserving the status quo on trade with China. The trade war should prompt China to recognise that buying US Treasuries instead of making domestic investments is not in its own interests.

1 Nov 2018 - 10:31AM
Macroscope | China’s yuan sinks, but neither its central bank nor investors are showing signs of panic

While the current depreciation in the yuan appears sharper than in the 2015-17 crisis that rattled investors, the PBOC has yet to intervene in the market the way it did then, signalling that it is serious about exchange rate reform.

While the current depreciation in the yuan appears sharper than in the 2015-17 crisis that rattled investors, the PBOC has yet to intervene in the market the way it did then, signalling that it is serious about exchange rate reform.

30 Aug 2018 - 10:47PM
Why US accusations of IP theft by China don’t add up

America’s Section 301 investigation, based on rumour and half-truths, ignores the benefits that US companies have gained from their voluntary entry into China, China’s anaemic investment into technology in the US, and Beijing’s improvement in IP protection.

America’s Section 301 investigation, based on rumour and half-truths, ignores the benefits that US companies have gained from their voluntary entry into China, China’s anaemic investment into technology in the US, and Beijing’s improvement in IP protection.

29 Jun 2018 - 2:03AM
China’s economic growth will stabilise – just not in 2018

Optimistic growth forecasts for the Chinese economy overlook the degree to which slowing fixed-asset investment – though good for the long-term health of the economy – will affect near-term prospects.

Optimistic growth forecasts for the Chinese economy overlook the degree to which slowing fixed-asset investment – though good for the long-term health of the economy – will affect near-term prospects.

8 Jan 2018 - 11:56AM
8 Jan 2018 - 11:56AM
20 Aug 2015 - 11:32AM
Can China avoid a disastrous deflationary spiral?

Yu Yongding says with China facing a protracted period of deflation, structural changes are needed to ensure recovery is sustainable, unlike last time.

Yu Yongding says with China facing a protracted period of deflation, structural changes are needed to ensure recovery is sustainable, unlike last time.

30 Jun 2015 - 2:09PM
Monetary easing won't be enough to help Chinese SMEs feeling the funding squeeze

Financial repression has long been a key feature of Chinese economic policy. But, with funding costs for businesses trending up, this is finally starting to change.

Financial repression has long been a key feature of Chinese economic policy. But, with funding costs for businesses trending up, this is finally starting to change.

5 Nov 2014 - 4:45AM
Rumours of a Chinese crash are greatly exaggerated

The market is always in search of a story and investors, it seems, think they have found a new one this year in China. The country's growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a growing wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash.

The market is always in search of a story and investors, it seems, think they have found a new one this year in China. The country's growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a growing wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash.

20 Jul 2018 - 2:53PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:53PM
China's fear of inflation puts brakes on growth

China's economic-growth rate slowed in the second quarter of this year to 7.5 per cent year on year, down from 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, in line with Chinese economists' forecasts in recent months.

China's economic-growth rate slowed in the second quarter of this year to 7.5 per cent year on year, down from 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, in line with Chinese economists' forecasts in recent months.

5 Aug 2013 - 3:51AM