Former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s close ties with Donald Trump failed to get results as the president ran roughshod over Japan and the notion of multilateralism, the core of its diplomacy. Tokyo will welcome renewed US engagement in Asia but is still hedging its bets, amid lingering questions about waning US influence.
To some Indonesians, Biden represents a return to the Obama period, when the US lectured others on democracy but continued to wage wars in foreign lands.
While Beijing choosing to test an incoming Biden administration would be bad, a superficial peace offering would be almost as harmful. Patience on China’s part will let Biden focus on handling the pandemic and restarting the US economy.
Chinese competition has exploded the ‘End of History’ myth, while Asia’s handling of Covid-19 shows ‘good government’ is not an oxymoron, writes Kishore Mahbubani.
As part of a multilateral approach to constrain rivals such as China, Russia and Iran, Biden will solicit support from its treaty allies. While the Philippines has been a pivotal part of US projection of power in the Indo-Pacific, the future of the alliance is in doubt.
While US policy towards China will be less confrontational and the trade war may be dialled down, Biden will keep up the pressure on scrutiny of Chinese investments in the US, market access for American firms in China, human rights and Hong Kong.
If Indians believed US-India relations were on solid ground because of the bond between Trump and Modi, what does a Biden-Harris government portend? For Modi, it seems it’s bad news and a political investment gone awry.
As Asia continues its upwards trajectory to surpass Europe economically and strategically, a key challenge for Joe Biden will be to recover lost ground with the continent and re-establish the US’ leadership role in the region.
US-China relations will remain difficult given widespread US antagonism towards China. But the relationship will be better managed – Biden will be less inclined to use America’s China policy as a prop to further a domestic agenda.
China-US relations under Biden are likely to become less confrontational and more predictable, but they will remain challenging. Meanwhile, Russia can expect more of the same, including the continuation of sanctions.
