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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a press conference by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell following a rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 18. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

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Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

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India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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A man counts Indian rupee notes at a roadside currency exchange stall in the old quarters of Delhi on February 2. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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A delivery driver transports liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders in Amritsar, Punjab state, in India on March 24. Two more Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, marking a fresh set of exceptions in the chokepoint disrupted by the Middle East war. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

People with smartphones walk through the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2022. Debt stocks have reached new highs across both advanced and emerging economies. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Flames rise during a fire caused by debris from an intercepted drone at the oil refinery hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 4. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Japan’s Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi speaks during an election campaign event in Tokyo on February 7. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2016. The prospect of a prolonged dollar bear market has major implications for the global economy and markets. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, (left) gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28, 2025. Photo: AFP
Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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US President Donald Trump (right) greets leaders as he arrives for a Board of Peace charter announcement at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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US President Donald Trump dances at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan, on January 13. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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People walk below a large screen displaying the latest stock exchange and economic data in Shanghai on January 6. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28. Photo: AFP
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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