Latest from Prof Zhang Jun
China’s outbreak response system has evolved to serve a population with a large number of unvaccinated elderly and address regional disparities in social services and healthcare. The strategy is characteristic of Chinese policymakers’ willingness to incur short-term high costs to advance long-term development goals.
China’s outbreak response system has evolved to serve a population with a large number of unvaccinated elderly and address regional disparities in social services and healthcare. The strategy is characteristic of Chinese policymakers’ willingness to incur short-term high costs to advance long-term development goals.
Perhaps the greatest impact of the US effort to contain China has been to clarify China’s weaknesses and spur more progress in addressing them. US policies will not force China out of the existing global economic system, let alone lead it to embrace an insular, state-controlled development model.
Perhaps the greatest impact of the US effort to contain China has been to clarify China’s weaknesses and spur more progress in addressing them. US policies will not force China out of the existing global economic system, let alone lead it to embrace an insular, state-controlled development model.
If barriers to migration grow high enough, populous countries will outpace smaller ones in innovation, even the richer ones. If China makes the most of this advantage, the US will find it all but impossible to hamper its economic progress.
If barriers to migration grow high enough, populous countries will outpace smaller ones in innovation, even the richer ones. If China makes the most of this advantage, the US will find it all but impossible to hamper its economic progress.
While foreign firms might arrive in China with a slight technological advantage, it is usually short-lived, given how fast Chinese companies learn. This base-level dynamism has been strengthened by the government’s investment in the internet, communication, transport and logistics over past 20 years.
While foreign firms might arrive in China with a slight technological advantage, it is usually short-lived, given how fast Chinese companies learn. This base-level dynamism has been strengthened by the government’s investment in the internet, communication, transport and logistics over past 20 years.
The problem with many predictions about China’s economy is that they failed to include the variable of size. The growth of China’s bond market, the renminbi’s internationalisation and the emergence of the e-CNY show China’s rise will be faster than many expect.
The problem with many predictions about China’s economy is that they failed to include the variable of size. The growth of China’s bond market, the renminbi’s internationalisation and the emergence of the e-CNY show China’s rise will be faster than many expect.
The shift in sentiment towards China is partly rooted in ideological polarisation, which has impeded US leaders’ ability to govern effectively. Back when voters shared the same facts, politicians could appeal to the ‘median voter’. But the fragmenting of the US media landscape has changed the picture.
The shift in sentiment towards China is partly rooted in ideological polarisation, which has impeded US leaders’ ability to govern effectively. Back when voters shared the same facts, politicians could appeal to the ‘median voter’. But the fragmenting of the US media landscape has changed the picture.
China’s rapidly declining fertility reflects the legacy of family planning policies, which had caused the birth rate to plummet well below replacement level by the 1990s. If it is to sustain its economic dynamism, it must expand its labour force by raising the retirement age and encouraging families to have more children.
China’s rapidly declining fertility reflects the legacy of family planning policies, which had caused the birth rate to plummet well below replacement level by the 1990s. If it is to sustain its economic dynamism, it must expand its labour force by raising the retirement age and encouraging families to have more children.
Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are vital to China’s economic future, but none are more important than the other as each has a unique role to play. By recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has built a powerful mechanism for driving its economic transformation.
Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are vital to China’s economic future, but none are more important than the other as each has a unique role to play. By recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has built a powerful mechanism for driving its economic transformation.
In China, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the uptake of digital technologies in households, schools and companies. Technology has also enabled the country to emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns without risking public health.
In China, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the uptake of digital technologies in households, schools and companies. Technology has also enabled the country to emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns without risking public health.
It is naive to believe that technological decoupling, trade sanctions or forced supply chain changes will end China’s economic expansion. The world has yet to appreciate the significance of China’s inward shift of economic gravity.
It is naive to believe that technological decoupling, trade sanctions or forced supply chain changes will end China’s economic expansion. The world has yet to appreciate the significance of China’s inward shift of economic gravity.
China’s role is changing, without a doubt, as the economy shifts gear into developing its hi-tech and services sectors. Its innovation, and still considerable manufacturing heft, will ensure it has a place in the global value chain.
China’s role is changing, without a doubt, as the economy shifts gear into developing its hi-tech and services sectors. Its innovation, and still considerable manufacturing heft, will ensure it has a place in the global value chain.
The epidemic may well reach a turning point in the next two weeks, confining the worst of the economic impact to the first quarter. This, and policy adjustments, should allow China to record economic growth of 5-5.5 per cent for the year, firmly back on track.
The epidemic may well reach a turning point in the next two weeks, confining the worst of the economic impact to the first quarter. This, and policy adjustments, should allow China to record economic growth of 5-5.5 per cent for the year, firmly back on track.
Disruptive policies in environmental regulation and debt management, for example, hurt investor confidence, stymie reforms and contribute to China’s economic slowdown. For long-term stable growth, Beijing needs to eventually let go and get out of its own way.
Disruptive policies in environmental regulation and debt management, for example, hurt investor confidence, stymie reforms and contribute to China’s economic slowdown. For long-term stable growth, Beijing needs to eventually let go and get out of its own way.
To reach its centenary goal of being a ‘great socialist country’, China needs another three decades of strong growth. This is possible only if it transforms its growth model to spur a sharp and sustainable increase in home-grown demand.
To reach its centenary goal of being a ‘great socialist country’, China needs another three decades of strong growth. This is possible only if it transforms its growth model to spur a sharp and sustainable increase in home-grown demand.
Beijing’s willingness to liberalise and reform has allowed local-level competition and experimentation to flourish into the fiscal federalism that is the main driver of its economic rise.
Beijing’s willingness to liberalise and reform has allowed local-level competition and experimentation to flourish into the fiscal federalism that is the main driver of its economic rise.
China has not deployed all its trade war weapons, not because it doesn’t have them, but because it sees stability as preferable both at home and abroad. Likewise, it would prefer gradual reform.
China has not deployed all its trade war weapons, not because it doesn’t have them, but because it sees stability as preferable both at home and abroad. Likewise, it would prefer gradual reform.
Serious challenges on several fronts did not deter the authorities from pressing on with a commitment to change the Chinese growth model. The story of how these efforts contributed to the rise of the middle class and the emergence of a world-leading digital economy demands a fuller understanding.
Serious challenges on several fronts did not deter the authorities from pressing on with a commitment to change the Chinese growth model. The story of how these efforts contributed to the rise of the middle class and the emergence of a world-leading digital economy demands a fuller understanding.
Opening up markets – from telecoms to education and insurance – would be a massive boost to an economy struggling with declining productivity and a trade war.
Opening up markets – from telecoms to education and insurance – would be a massive boost to an economy struggling with declining productivity and a trade war.
China’s economic structure, its development stage and pending reforms mean growth will remain consistent. Frequent comparisons to the collapse of the USSR and stagnation of Japan are therefore inadequate.
China’s economic structure, its development stage and pending reforms mean growth will remain consistent. Frequent comparisons to the collapse of the USSR and stagnation of Japan are therefore inadequate.
While recent years have seen a pullback from the decentralised governance instituted in the Mao Zedong era, it risks stifling growth and innovation. The answer may lie in a system of downward accountability.
While recent years have seen a pullback from the decentralised governance instituted in the Mao Zedong era, it risks stifling growth and innovation. The answer may lie in a system of downward accountability.
The panic in the West over China’s quest for technological dominance is based on a misunderstanding of the ground reality. The country is nowhere near being a world leader in hard technology development.
The panic in the West over China’s quest for technological dominance is based on a misunderstanding of the ground reality. The country is nowhere near being a world leader in hard technology development.
Zhang Jun says with the state sector expected to shed more jobs, the government will be under pressure to intervene – to the detriment of the economy’s long-term prospects.
Zhang Jun says with the state sector expected to shed more jobs, the government will be under pressure to intervene – to the detriment of the economy’s long-term prospects.
Although China's economy has expanded at a staggering pace over the past three decades, its growth model is now widely agreed to be exhausted. Even China's top leadership acknowledges the need for change.
Although China's economy has expanded at a staggering pace over the past three decades, its growth model is now widely agreed to be exhausted. Even China's top leadership acknowledges the need for change.