Prof Zhang Jun

Prof Zhang Jun

Zhang Jun is dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and director of the China Centre for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank.

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Latest from Prof Zhang Jun

Opinion | Why China will not abandon its zero-Covid policy any time soon

China’s outbreak response system has evolved to serve a population with a large number of unvaccinated elderly and address regional disparities in social services and healthcare. The strategy is characteristic of Chinese policymakers’ willingness to incur short-term high costs to advance long-term development goals.

China’s outbreak response system has evolved to serve a population with a large number of unvaccinated elderly and address regional disparities in social services and healthcare. The strategy is characteristic of Chinese policymakers’ willingness to incur short-term high costs to advance long-term development goals.

20 May 2022 - 9:15AM
The View | China’s hedge against US policies and geopolitical shocks will not be a complete turn inward

Perhaps the greatest impact of the US effort to contain China has been to clarify China’s weaknesses and spur more progress in addressing them. US policies will not force China out of the existing global economic system, let alone lead it to embrace an insular, state-controlled development model.

Perhaps the greatest impact of the US effort to contain China has been to clarify China’s weaknesses and spur more progress in addressing them. US policies will not force China out of the existing global economic system, let alone lead it to embrace an insular, state-controlled development model.

15 Mar 2022 - 1:30PM
Opinion | Why China holds the advantage over America even amid deglobalisation

If barriers to migration grow high enough, populous countries will outpace smaller ones in innovation, even the richer ones. If China makes the most of this advantage, the US will find it all but impossible to hamper its economic progress.

If barriers to migration grow high enough, populous countries will outpace smaller ones in innovation, even the richer ones. If China makes the most of this advantage, the US will find it all but impossible to hamper its economic progress.

19 Dec 2021 - 2:30PM
Opinion | The secret to China’s economic success? A willingness to learn

While foreign firms might arrive in China with a slight technological advantage, it is usually short-lived, given how fast Chinese companies learn. This base-level dynamism has been strengthened by the government’s investment in the internet, communication, transport and logistics over past 20 years.

While foreign firms might arrive in China with a slight technological advantage, it is usually short-lived, given how fast Chinese companies learn. This base-level dynamism has been strengthened by the government’s investment in the internet, communication, transport and logistics over past 20 years.

6 Oct 2021 - 3:06AM
Opinion | Why China’s rise to financial dominance is inevitable

The problem with many predictions about China’s economy is that they failed to include the variable of size. The growth of China’s bond market, the renminbi’s internationalisation and the emergence of the e-CNY show China’s rise will be faster than many expect.

The problem with many predictions about China’s economy is that they failed to include the variable of size. The growth of China’s bond market, the renminbi’s internationalisation and the emergence of the e-CNY show China’s rise will be faster than many expect.

3 Aug 2021 - 10:58PM
Opinion | Why America’s growing antagonism towards China can be traced to the US media

The shift in sentiment towards China is partly rooted in ideological polarisation, which has impeded US leaders’ ability to govern effectively. Back when voters shared the same facts, politicians could appeal to the ‘median voter’. But the fragmenting of the US media landscape has changed the picture.

The shift in sentiment towards China is partly rooted in ideological polarisation, which has impeded US leaders’ ability to govern effectively. Back when voters shared the same facts, politicians could appeal to the ‘median voter’. But the fragmenting of the US media landscape has changed the picture.

23 May 2021 - 9:30PM
Opinion | Could China’s population crisis be reaching a point of no return?

China’s rapidly declining fertility reflects the legacy of family planning policies, which had caused the birth rate to plummet well below replacement level by the 1990s. If it is to sustain its economic dynamism, it must expand its labour force by raising the retirement age and encouraging families to have more children.

China’s rapidly declining fertility reflects the legacy of family planning policies, which had caused the birth rate to plummet well below replacement level by the 1990s. If it is to sustain its economic dynamism, it must expand its labour force by raising the retirement age and encouraging families to have more children.

25 Mar 2021 - 6:46AM
Opinion | Shenzhen, Shanghai show China’s skill in playing to pioneering cities’ strengths

Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are vital to China’s economic future, but none are more important than the other as each has a unique role to play. By recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has built a powerful mechanism for driving its economic transformation.

Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are vital to China’s economic future, but none are more important than the other as each has a unique role to play. By recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has built a powerful mechanism for driving its economic transformation.

24 Nov 2020 - 8:17PM
The View | How China’s rapid shift to a digital economy can help it escape a long recession

In China, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the uptake of digital technologies in households, schools and companies. Technology has also enabled the country to emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns without risking public health.

In China, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the uptake of digital technologies in households, schools and companies. Technology has also enabled the country to emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns without risking public health.

9 Sep 2020 - 10:24PM
Opinion | Why China’s economy will continue to grow and attract investment

It is naive to believe that technological decoupling, trade sanctions or forced supply chain changes will end China’s economic expansion. The world has yet to appreciate the significance of China’s inward shift of economic gravity.

It is naive to believe that technological decoupling, trade sanctions or forced supply chain changes will end China’s economic expansion. The world has yet to appreciate the significance of China’s inward shift of economic gravity.

27 Jun 2020 - 3:00AM
Opinion | Why the coronavirus crisis won’t weaken China’s position in the global supply chain

China’s role is changing, without a doubt, as the economy shifts gear into developing its hi-tech and services sectors. Its innovation, and still considerable manufacturing heft, will ensure it has a place in the global value chain.

China’s role is changing, without a doubt, as the economy shifts gear into developing its hi-tech and services sectors. Its innovation, and still considerable manufacturing heft, will ensure it has a place in the global value chain.

9 Apr 2020 - 5:06AM
The View | Coronavirus: why China’s economy is likely to make a robust recovery

The epidemic may well reach a turning point in the next two weeks, confining the worst of the economic impact to the first quarter. This, and policy adjustments, should allow China to record economic growth of 5-5.5 per cent for the year, firmly back on track.

The epidemic may well reach a turning point in the next two weeks, confining the worst of the economic impact to the first quarter. This, and policy adjustments, should allow China to record economic growth of 5-5.5 per cent for the year, firmly back on track.

13 Feb 2020 - 1:38AM
Macroscope | How Beijing’s overmanagement is doing China’s economy and businesses more harm than good

Disruptive policies in environmental regulation and debt management, for example, hurt investor confidence, stymie reforms and contribute to China’s economic slowdown. For long-term stable growth, Beijing needs to eventually let go and get out of its own way.

Disruptive policies in environmental regulation and debt management, for example, hurt investor confidence, stymie reforms and contribute to China’s economic slowdown. For long-term stable growth, Beijing needs to eventually let go and get out of its own way.

2 Jan 2020 - 3:22AM
Macroscope | China must tap the potential of its huge domestic market for economic growth to become a truly modern nation

To reach its centenary goal of being a ‘great socialist country’, China needs another three decades of strong growth. This is possible only if it transforms its growth model to spur a sharp and sustainable increase in home-grown demand.

To reach its centenary goal of being a ‘great socialist country’, China needs another three decades of strong growth. This is possible only if it transforms its growth model to spur a sharp and sustainable increase in home-grown demand.

16 Oct 2019 - 10:28PM
Opinion | China owes its rapid economic rise not to state control, but to its unique form of fiscal federalism

Beijing’s willingness to liberalise and reform has allowed local-level competition and experimentation to flourish into the fiscal federalism that is the main driver of its economic rise.

Beijing’s willingness to liberalise and reform has allowed local-level competition and experimentation to flourish into the fiscal federalism that is the main driver of its economic rise.

12 Aug 2019 - 3:51PM
Opinion | How Donald Trump misjudged China’s commitment to economic stability and incremental reform as a weakness

China has not deployed all its trade war weapons, not because it doesn’t have them, but because it sees stability as preferable both at home and abroad. Likewise, it would prefer gradual reform.

China has not deployed all its trade war weapons, not because it doesn’t have them, but because it sees stability as preferable both at home and abroad. Likewise, it would prefer gradual reform.

5 Jun 2019 - 1:03PM
The View | China’s decade of extraordinary growth from 2008 is lost on its critics. Why?

Serious challenges on several fronts did not deter the authorities from pressing on with a commitment to change the Chinese growth model. The story of how these efforts contributed to the rise of the middle class and the emergence of a world-leading digital economy demands a fuller understanding.

Serious challenges on several fronts did not deter the authorities from pressing on with a commitment to change the Chinese growth model. The story of how these efforts contributed to the rise of the middle class and the emergence of a world-leading digital economy demands a fuller understanding.

3 Apr 2019 - 10:22PM
The View | China should save less, stop protecting industries and liberalise instead, to unleash domestic consumption

Opening up markets – from telecoms to education and insurance – would be a massive boost to an economy struggling with declining productivity and a trade war.

Opening up markets – from telecoms to education and insurance – would be a massive boost to an economy struggling with declining productivity and a trade war.

5 Jun 2019 - 12:58PM
Opinion | China’s economy will not go the way of Japan’s or the Soviet Union’s, despite the pessimism and US pressure

China’s economic structure, its development stage and pending reforms mean growth will remain consistent. Frequent comparisons to the collapse of the USSR and stagnation of Japan are therefore inadequate.

China’s economic structure, its development stage and pending reforms mean growth will remain consistent. Frequent comparisons to the collapse of the USSR and stagnation of Japan are therefore inadequate.

5 Jun 2019 - 1:00PM
How China’s balancing act between centralised control and local leadership will be critical to its future

While recent years have seen a pullback from the decentralised governance instituted in the Mao Zedong era, it risks stifling growth and innovation. The answer may lie in a system of downward accountability.

While recent years have seen a pullback from the decentralised governance instituted in the Mao Zedong era, it risks stifling growth and innovation. The answer may lie in a system of downward accountability.

2 Oct 2018 - 7:38PM
Opinion | Will China be the next tech powerhouse? Maybe with the next 20 years of sustained investment

The panic in the West over China’s quest for technological dominance is based on a misunderstanding of the ground reality. The country is nowhere near being a world leader in hard technology development.

The panic in the West over China’s quest for technological dominance is based on a misunderstanding of the ground reality. The country is nowhere near being a world leader in hard technology development.

1 Aug 2018 - 9:18PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:55PM
30 Mar 2017 - 2:25PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:54PM
China could be facing a hard choice over painful job losses

Zhang Jun says with the state sector expected to shed more jobs, the government will be under pressure to intervene – to the detriment of the economy’s long-term prospects.

Zhang Jun says with the state sector expected to shed more jobs, the government will be under pressure to intervene – to the detriment of the economy’s long-term prospects.

30 May 2016 - 5:11PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:54PM
15 Nov 2016 - 12:31PM
15 Nov 2016 - 12:31PM
Rethinking the role of efficiency in China's growth model

Although China's economy has expanded at a staggering pace over the past three decades, its growth model is now widely agreed to be exhausted. Even China's top leadership acknowledges the need for change.

Although China's economy has expanded at a staggering pace over the past three decades, its growth model is now widely agreed to be exhausted. Even China's top leadership acknowledges the need for change.

15 Nov 2016 - 12:30PM
20 Jul 2018 - 2:53PM