Another low draw, another Class Three handicap with a big weight, and John Size-trained Access Years is likely to start favourite again too, but punters will be hoping for a change of luck for the sprinter in the middle leg of Sunday's Triple Trio at Sha Tin.
After winning one from two last term, Access Years returned this season with an easy win over 1,000m. Even then he drew well, jumping from the equivalent of barrier two - barrier 13 on the grandstand rail-biased straight track. After that he was ninth for Tye Angland when drawn one over the same course, a poisonous starting position that leaves runners absolutely no chance unless they can quickly get to the front.
Since then, Access Years has been in similar situations at his last two runs - box-seating as a short-priced favourite, with everything going to script until the straight when trouble has struck for jockey Joao Moreira.
Two starts back Moreira went for a rails run late that was shut down by Umberto Rispoli on Precision King, and last start it was Tommy Berry and Smart Forward, a rival again today, putting a "hip and shoulder" on the 2.6 fancy when he tried to ease out of a cushy position upon turning. Both times Access Years was left flat-footed at a vital stage and chased gallantly, but without crucial momentum, into second.
Drawn one, Moreira will probably face a similar scenario in the straight again - lightning has already struck twice, but surely this time he can find clear running and Access Years can win his way out of Class Three. Smart Forward (Berry) warrants inclusion again, while Tonyboy (Mirco Demuro) and Multiexpress (Matthew Chadwick) go in. Chris So Wai-yin's new import Asia Rising (Zac Purton) should be included after a decent effort at his last trial.
The first leg is a Class Four over 1,800m with four or five main chances, but it is a race that drops away sharply after that so playing tight without a banker, or playing multiple tickets with alternate bankers, may be the best strategy.
On The Way (Douglas Whyte) has looked like needing more ground at each of his starts over 1,200m and 1,400m. Trainer Dennis Yip Chor-hong has skipped a mile run and jumped straight to where the four-year-old looks like being a real threat at nine furlongs.
Starting Over (Andreas Suborics) backs up, and steps up in distance, after a decent effort on Wednesday night over 1,650m at Happy Valley. Caspar Fownes is a master at these type of ploys, so look for a big effort; the four-year-old appears to be coming right and the extra distance suits. Others to consider are Happy Centenary (Brett Prebble), Win Along (Moreira) and Winnam (Purton).
In the final leg, a Class Three over 1,600m, it is another horse stepping up to what looks like a more suitable trip that looms as banker. Peter Ho Leung's Archippus (Purton) handled his first two assignments over 1,000m and 1,400m like a professional, although there were some nervous moments when he dead-heated for first on debut as 2.4 top pick.
Last start over 1,400m he was dominant - forced back to race rearward from a wide draw, the three-year-old rounded up his opposition easily with 131 pounds and won going away. Carrying 120 pounds, and from barrier five on Sunday, anywhere near that effort should be enough, particularly with his biggest threat Khaya (Whyte) faring badly at the draw.
Khaya has drawn 13 and will be spotting Archippus a considerable start in the run. He will still be getting home though and can be considered as a double banker. Of the others, take Divine Diya (Karis Teetan), Wrath Of Fire (Weichong Marwing) and Helene Fun Star (Chadwick).
