Lucky Nine has had more bumps and bruises than your typical seven-year-old, has quirky idiosyncrasies galore and his best runs don't come as consistently as they once did, but the Caspar Fownes-trained racetrack warrior is still the one to beat in today's Group Two Sprint Cup (1,200m) at Sha Tin.
A flat last start fifth by Lucky Nine in the Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup wasn't the type of performance that screamed "back me next start", but his best effort is still superior to anything his nine rivals today have ever produced. He has now won six Group Ones, including the Chairman's Sprint Prize at set weights two starts back.
As the only Group One winner, he does have to give each of those horses five pounds under the conditions of the race, but coming back to 1,200m, with blinkers on for just the second time and with a fair draw, the circumstances are right for the gelding to be at his best.
Lucky Nine didn't get to the line with his usual gusto last time out, and just as alarmingly, he was easy in betting - but he has bounced back from sub-par runs before. Last season he was a career-worst seventh in this race and ran the race of his life in Singapore next time out when he won the Krisflyer Sprint by three lengths. All being well, he is headed back to Singapore three weeks after this run - so expect to see a fresh Lucky Nine as he comes back in trip, given the travel and major target ahead.
Fownes has reached into the tack room for blinkers in an effort to address the horses habit of missing the start; the headgear should not only help Brett Prebble to get the gelding to jump on terms, but be more easily positioned in the run.
Gate six looks ideal, as he will look to sit in his usual spot just better than midfield - hoping to peel out three-wide as they turn and get into a scrap. When placed in a dogfight to the line, Lucky Nine has rarely come off second best.
Speed comes from the inside with Go Baby Go - he is coming back to more suitable set weights conditions and he was runner-up in this race last year but he doesn't appear to be in the same form. Pressure will come from Bullish Friend, but the speed won't be frantic unless Cerise Cherry or Best Eleven have a bite for the lead.
Last year's winner Rich Tapestry (Olivier Doleuze) is Lucky Nine's biggest threat - he returns from Dubai rated one of the best dirt horses on the planet, but he is no scrub on the turf either - and provided he has stood up to the travel, the Michael Chang Chun-wai-trained six-year-old could easily make it back-to-back triumphs.
Rich Tapestry started the season unconvincingly, looking like he had reached his ratings limit, but after a let-up, Chang produced a masterful training performance to have his horse peak for two great runs in Dubai. First he won the Mahab Al Shimaal on Tapeta in early March, before running second on the same surface to Sterling City in the Golden Shaheen three weeks later.
Rich Tapestry has had just three weeks of work since then, and given those overseas runs appeared to be career-highs, there's a big chance of a bounce back - especially given the travel. Still, set weights probably suit him now more than ever and his recent runs have been faultless.
An excellent draw is a huge bonus for Rich Tapestry - he worked hard from a wide gate last year, and 12 months later Doleuze has the relative luxury of barrier two, from where he can find a perfect spot with cover just in behind the leader.
John Moore has three runners, all with some hope - Charles The Great (Douglas Whyte) and Frederick Engels (Joao Moreira) has shown this is their level before, while Straight Gold (Gerald Mosse) is helped by gate three.
