Anyone dreaming of collecting a life-changing dividend from this Sunday's Triple Trio at Sha Tin will have to make it past an impossible looking opening leg where Optimization Star can be counted on as banker.
The Triple Trio has not been won since Champions Mile day on May 4, and continues to build to monumental levels. Getting through a minefield first leg - a Class Five over 1,400m - is just the start for those chasing a possible HK$140 million prize for a $10 investment.
A jackpot of HK$94 million is in the top four biggest of all time and the largest since April 2001, but it seems those selecting the races are determined to see it grow further, choosing three open events that all lack a clear cut favourite.
David Hall's Optimization Star (Karis Teetan) seems to have found his mark and comes back to a distance where he has finished first and second at his only two starts at the trip.
The six-year-old won off a mark of 36 over the course and distance in early November, and has steadily dropped from a rating of 41 since without ever being completely out of form.
Last start he was ridden conservatively over a mile at Sha Tin, and was hampered as he made his run in the straight, but still got home well.
There are many chances and Casa Junior (Eddy Lai Wai-ming) is next in - he overraced when driven from a wide gate to sit handy at Happy Valley over 1,650m and still stuck on for third. His form is better at the Valley, but he still has to go in, but after that, where to stop is a matter of finances.
The two horses dropping in grade - Super Caga (Olivier Doleuze) and Magical Beam (Zac Purton) must be given some hope, and should be included.
Brett Prebble jumps back on Jun Hao, who never saw daylight last time out and might just be about to find his ratings bottom.
Archer's Bow (Hugh Bowman), Positive Energy (Tommy Berry) and Billion Gains (Alex Lai Hoi-wing) are the others to consider.
Selections for the Class Four second leg over 1,400m hinge on whether you can forgive John Size's Do You Get It (Douglas Whyte) an inexplicable last start failure as favourite.
Two starts back the three-year-old won narrowly, albeit after a tough run, and looked like he was on his way through the grades. But after becoming stirred up pre-race last start, he gave in meekly, and combined with a wide draw and his propensity to miss the kick on occasion he makes for heart-in-mouth stuff as banker.
Then there's a couple of Class Four veterans who look at their mark - My Goal (Eddy Lai) and Thanksgiving (Derek Leung Ka-chun) - but who at least can put themselves in the race and are coming off good runs. Capital K (Bowman) is a chance from a low draw, as is last start long-shot winner Born To Win (Doleuze).
You can't take everyone, but definitely include New Pet (Joao Moreira) - he seems to have reached that point where a ratings drop and natural improvement intersect, and the step up to 1,400m suits.
A healthy consolation payout awaits those who make it to the final leg, but getting through it is another matter - it's hard to rule out anything.
Demokles (Purton) may have some more ratings points in hand after his last start breakthrough, and he can stand out as banker, from Happy Centenary (Neil Callan), Dragon Fighter (Teetan) and Mark Two (Whyte).
