Finding a banker outsider of the big international races could be the key to cracking a jackpot-boosted Triple Trio at Sha Tin on Sunday and a kinder draw makes Tony Cruz-trained sprinter Key Witness the standout in the final leg.
The Hong Kong Vase and Hong Kong Sprint represent the opening two legs of a TT bolstered by a small carryover of HK$7.8 million, but it is a horse that could be looking to force his way into the Sprint next year that can be used as banker in the anchor leg.
With an obvious standout and a long tail in the Vase, and a deep and competitive sprint to follow, banking on Key Witness can help make room for more selections in the earlier two races.
After winning three races last term and missing the frame just twice in eight starts, Key Witness started this season in the top half of Class Two looking like a horse to watch.
On paper the sprinter has been a touch disappointing in four starts, in that connections would have expected a win by now, but circumstances have certainly worked against the four-year-old.
At his last two starts, bad draws have been the problem for Key Witness, but after jumping from 10 and then 14 at his last two, he draws gate four this time with Douglas Whyte jumping aboard.
From the lower gate Whyte should return to a racing pattern that worked last term - riding the gelding a little more quietly - after he was driven forward from the outside last start and ended up being stuck wide facing the breeze. Key Witness still gave some cheek as he hit the front in the straight, but understandably gave in over the final 100m to finish fifth.
His main dangers are the same horses that beat him home last start, but this time Cruz's charge meets them on better terms.
John Size-trained Teofilo Calva (Joao Moreira) has drawn gate 12, and Key Witness meets him three pounds better from the last start - and a massive 13 pounds better than when they met first-up earlier this season when only two and a half lengths separated them.
Teofilo Calva still goes in after the narrow last-start defeat, as do the horses that finished third and fourth behind him - Lang Tai Sing (Gerald Mosse) and Let Me Go (Andrea Atzeni).
David Hall's Berlinski (Zac Purton) is a threat from barrier one, while one to watch is John Moore's 2015 Hong Kong Derby hopeful Helene Happy Star, launching his new career off a mark of 88. He won a Listed race over 2,000m in England and while barrier 13 will not help, expect him to be finding the line after a couple of nice trials.
The opening leg is the Vase, where a clear standout on class and form is Flintshire. The four-year-old has had a tight travel schedule in the last two months, but has not been overly tapped this year with just five starts.
The brown colt has turned up at trackwork each day looking fit and well, and it appears as though only terrible luck in running can stop him.
How he handles what will invariably be a stop-start tempo is a factor, but if Maxime Guyon keeps his wits about him he should have the colt in clear running.
Best of the locals looks like Willie Cazals (Whyte), who may possess the best turn of foot in the race and whose lead-up form has looked promising. Last year's winner Dominant (Moreira) comes in with a similar formline, while Red Cadeaux (Mosse) is hard to leave out of calculations.
The second leg, the Sprint, is where things get really difficult. Lucky Nine (Brett Prebble) has the score on the board, so to speak, and a good draw makes him a banker.
This is a race where it is possible to make a case for 10 or more runners, and luck will almost certainly play a part.
There were hard luck stories behind Peniaphobia (Whyte) in the Jockey Club Sprint, but it is hard to knock the effort of the Tony Cruz-trained three-year-old. He is the horse on the rise, drew a gate and can also be considered as a banker.
From there, it is as deep as you can afford to go - Aerovelocity (Purton) and Sterling City (Moreira) were unlucky in the lead-up, and have to go in.
Then there are the visitors - Buffering (Damian Browne) is honest, while low draws could bring Little Gerda (Mirco Demuro) and Gordon Lord Byron (Wayne Lordan) into play.
The best of the Japanese trio looks to be Straight Girl (Yasunari Iwata).
