Class Five winners do not usually make it as high as Class Three, but Danny Shum Chap-shing's miler Supreme Profit can break through again at Sha Tin tomorrow and looks a nice banker in the middle leg of the Triple Trio.
In a TT boosted by a small HK$3.3 million jackpot and bookended by two hard-to-sort-out dirt races, Supreme Profit has drawn well with the rail in the C+3 position, should get a race run to suit and has attracted the services of top jockey Zac Purton for the first time.
Supreme Profit burst out of Class Five at his second run this season and since then has raced consistently in Class Four.
A comfortable win by the international sales graduate in November over a horse that went on to win two more races, Sempiternal, was followed by two runner-up efforts from his last three starts.
Shum's four-year-old has not had things go his way lately either - three starts back he worked hard and was trapped wide early, only to be beaten just a half length by Top Act, a horse that brained his Class Three rivals two starts later. Behind him were five subsequent winners - Money Cafe, Sugar City, Tom's Charm, Winnam and Golden Scalpel.
A poor run two starts back couldn't really be blamed on another awkward draw, but perhaps 1,800m is a little too far at this stage, and his run was fair anyway as he worked home. Back to 1,600m last start three weeks ago and there is no doubt, with even luck, that Supreme Profit should have scored as 2.9 favourite with Mirco Demuro aboard.
The Italian jockey rode for luck after settling back off the speed and found none, having his momentum halted at a crucial stage just outside the furlong pole. In the end he just missed Sergeant Titanium by a neck.
Also hurting Supreme Profit's chances that day were relatively slow early sectionals, with the first half of the race run below the already slow standard times for the grade and distance.
Despite the slight hold up in the straight, which cost Supreme Profit the race, he was still able to get home in 22.67s for the last 400m, the only horse to break 23 seconds in the event.
This 1,000m Class Four contest looks far more willing up front early. Dicky Lui Cheuk-yin is aboard front runner Harbour Delight and from gate one he will give everyone a bunny to chase.
Born To Win is usually ridden handy and drew out in barrier nine and with another couple of go-forward types drawn outside - Spirit Soaring and Lucky Dan - it should create some pressure.
Archippus drops back into Class Four for the first time since winning his first two starts. He has been a huge disappointment since, and even though he was driven forward last start, the same tactics seem unlikely here.
Also include some others that will benefit from some tempo, most notably Mac Row (Keith Yeung Ming-lun) and O'Socoole (Douglas Whyte), stepping up to the trip for the first time, but also give Elite Pride (Joao Moreira) another chance.
It seems as though the race programmers are trying to build a TT jackpot with the high turnover Lunar New Year meeting on the horizon and they have cruelly chosen two all-weather track contests for the first and last legs.
Take Tony Millard-trained gallopers as bankers in both.
In the first leg, a 1,200m Class Four, a similar effort by Horse Supremo (Karis Teetan) to his last-start second over the course and distance should be good enough here. There is a lot of pressure in the race, but sometimes that does not matter on the dirt.
Also include two speed merchants drawn below him in gates two and three respectively, Star Of Wai Bo (Gerald Mosse) and Victory General (Jacky Tong Chi-kit), along with last-start winner Easy Success (Nash Rawiller).
Millard's consistent sprinter Hit The Bid (Matthew Chadwick) has worked his way into Class Three without winning, but perhaps a switch to the dirt and weight off his back can provide some extra spark.
The two other obvious picks are Able Warrior (Teetan) and Hidden Value (Umberto Rispoli), who fought it out over the course and distance two months ago and have both been saved for this. Startling Power (Moreira) has to go in along with course specialist Turin Pearl (Olivier Doleuze).
