Joao Moreira again looks unstoppable in the Jockey Challenge but some canny in-play betting could be the only way to extract any value.
Moreira has won the Jockey Challenge at five of the last six meetings and was installed a dominant $1.55 favourite for the 10-race meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.
But with a string of strong chances coming in the latter half of the card, and some riskier propositions earlier in the day, waiting for better odds fluctuations could pay off.
Even though debutant Bravo Watchman looks a decent chance in race two, it is a wide open event on the tricky straight course.
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Similarly, the unpredictability of the dirt could bring race three favourite Respect undone.
In fact, the early markets for the first four races indicate they are less predictable types of events.
From race five onwards, however, Moreira’s chances become more solid, starting with Mambo Rock.
It pays to take notice anytime the Brazilian teams with David Hall, and Mambo Rock put the writing on the wall when flashing home for fifth when stepping up to 1,800m for the first time.
Mambo Rock’s final 400m split was only fractionally outside that of impressive winner Booming Delight.
Still, Mambo Rock might not be favoured by what is expected to be a slow tempo, so sitting out one more race might not be a bad thing either.
After that Moreira teams with the powerhouse stables of John Moore and John Size for the rest of the day and should make up whatever ground he is giving the Jockey Challenge leaders.
Moore’s Team Sweet was badly blocked for a run last start and if anywhere near his best should contend in a 1,400m Class Four that looks to lack depth.
Then Moreira rides Group Three Centenary Vase hope Helene Charisma, the import coming off an eye-catching ninth in the Hong Kong Classic Mile.
Helene Charisma should improve second-up, especially stepping up to 1,800m.
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The final three races are where Moreira can seal the Jockey Challenge deal though, with the Size-trained trio Western Express, Arizona Blizzard and Dr Listening.
Western Express comes back in distance to 1,400m and also into the more comfortable confines of Class Two, seemingly getting in well with 121 pounds.
A better draw is the key for dirt sprinter Arizona Blizzard after he sat wide last start, while in the last Dr Listening strikes a below average Class Three and can continue his progression.
