Hao Zhou

Hao Zhou currently serves as a senior economist (emerging markets) with Commerzbank. He covers North Asia economic and markets research.
Hao Zhou
Hao Zhou currently serves as a senior economist (emerging markets) with Commerzbank. He covers North Asia economic and markets research.

Latest from Hao Zhou

Opinion | As China fights to win US trade war, modern factories are now its weapon of choice

Trump’s trade war may be spurring China’s growth strategy, and was probably the reason for the delayed fourth plenum. A modern manufacturing sector seems likely to top the agenda for policymakers, given comments from President Xi and moves to channel capital away from the property market.

2 Oct 2019 - 3:05AM

Trump’s trade war may be spurring China’s growth strategy, and was probably the reason for the delayed fourth plenum. A modern manufacturing sector seems likely to top the agenda for policymakers, given comments from President Xi and moves to channel capital away from the property market.

As China fights to win US trade war, modern factories are now its weapon of choice
The View | China is tightening and the US is easing, but both show signs of digging in for a long trade war

China pushes ahead with deleveraging and tightening standards to avoid systemic risks, while the US seeks stimulus. These approaches appear opposite, but both are about girding up to maintain an advantage in the trade war.

4 Sep 2019 - 5:37AM

China pushes ahead with deleveraging and tightening standards to avoid systemic risks, while the US seeks stimulus. These approaches appear opposite, but both are about girding up to maintain an advantage in the trade war.

China is tightening and the US is easing, but both show signs of digging in for a long trade war
The View | China’s slowing economy won’t push it into joining the global rate-cutting cycle. Here are three reasons why

Concern over capital outflows, the need to deleverage and Beijing’s independent monetary policy mean the PBOC won’t cut rates, even as economic worries encourage other central banks to do so.

6 Aug 2019 - 10:24PM

Concern over capital outflows, the need to deleverage and Beijing’s independent monetary policy mean the PBOC won’t cut rates, even as economic worries encourage other central banks to do so.

China’s slowing economy won’t push it into joining the global rate-cutting cycle. Here are three reasons why
The View | How the Baoshang Bank takeover triggered a confidence crisis in small financial institutions and created a cash crunch in China

Since May, when the tiny Baotou-based bank prompted regulatory intervention, bigger financial institutions have had reason to question whether smaller counterparts are worth the risk.

2 Jul 2019 - 11:00PM

Since May, when the tiny Baotou-based bank prompted regulatory intervention, bigger financial institutions have had reason to question whether smaller counterparts are worth the risk.

How the Baoshang Bank takeover triggered a confidence crisis in small financial institutions and created a cash crunch in China
The View | In the trade war with the US, China should fight smart – and weakening the yuan or selling its US Treasury notes wouldn’t help

Should Beijing weaponise the yuan or offload its US Treasury holdings to retaliate against Washington? Probably not. Such measures either make no economic sense or might backfire on China.

28 May 2019 - 10:27PM

Should Beijing weaponise the yuan or offload its US Treasury holdings to retaliate against Washington? Probably not. Such measures either make no economic sense or might backfire on China.

In the trade war with the US, China should fight smart – and weakening the yuan or selling its US Treasury notes wouldn’t help
The View | Chinese stock market’s fast and furious April was rooted in fear of a monetary policy turn

While China’s central bank has denied that a big monetary policy change is in the offing, recent signals from officials suggest that the days of accommodative policy are coming to an end.

1 May 2019 - 3:38AM

While China’s central bank has denied that a big monetary policy change is in the offing, recent signals from officials suggest that the days of accommodative policy are coming to an end.

Chinese stock market’s fast and furious April was rooted in fear of a monetary policy turn
Opinion | China’s slowing economy gives its central bank chief the chance to make his mark on monetary policy history

As pressure grows on China’s leaders to increase funding for small and medium-sized enterprises, it’s the right time for the People’s Bank of China to scrap its benchmark rates and let market-based interest rates be the new anchor.

2 Apr 2019 - 10:27PM

As pressure grows on China’s leaders to increase funding for small and medium-sized enterprises, it’s the right time for the People’s Bank of China to scrap its benchmark rates and let market-based interest rates be the new anchor.

China’s slowing economy gives its central bank chief the chance to make his mark on monetary policy history
The View | The 2 trillion yuan question: will China’s stimulus measures be enough to boost the economy?

Beijing is taking extensive measures to stabilise the economy, through the central bank, local governments and an enormous tax-cut package. Already, some indicators seem to be responding to stimulus, which bodes well for global trade.

5 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

Beijing is taking extensive measures to stabilise the economy, through the central bank, local governments and an enormous tax-cut package. Already, some indicators seem to be responding to stimulus, which bodes well for global trade.

The 2 trillion yuan question: will China’s stimulus measures be enough to boost the economy?
The View | How the People’s Bank of China is changing direction and going all out to save the private sector

The Chinese central bank’s new policy tools are clearly meant to encourage banks to extend credit to small businesses. It is a striking change in policy direction, after years of focusing on state-owned enterprises.

6 Feb 2019 - 10:24PM

The Chinese central bank’s new policy tools are clearly meant to encourage banks to extend credit to small businesses. It is a striking change in policy direction, after years of focusing on state-owned enterprises.

How the People’s Bank of China is changing direction and going all out to save the private sector
The View | For China, tax cuts may work where its 4 trillion yuan stimulus failed – by boosting the economy without creating more debt

With Beijing still struggling to control the debt that swelled as a result of its 2008 rescue package, it has no appetite for more debt-fuelled stimulus. One way to increase domestic demand is to reduce the tax burden.

2 Jan 2019 - 3:30AM

With Beijing still struggling to control the debt that swelled as a result of its 2008 rescue package, it has no appetite for more debt-fuelled stimulus. One way to increase domestic demand is to reduce the tax burden.

For China, tax cuts may work where its 4 trillion yuan stimulus failed – by boosting the economy without creating more debt
The View | How much will Xi Jinping’s G20 steak dinner with Trump cost China? Possibly US$300 billion a year

Beijing is willing to pay the price to ease trade tensions with Washington and buy more time for economic development. But unresolved issues between the two sides mean the trade dispute may not go away in 90 days.

6 Dec 2018 - 11:06AM

Beijing is willing to pay the price to ease trade tensions with Washington and buy more time for economic development. But unresolved issues between the two sides mean the trade dispute may not go away in 90 days.

How much will Xi Jinping’s G20 steak dinner with Trump cost China? Possibly US$300 billion a year
The View | How the Trump-Xi phone call and rumours of a trade deal have provided short-term relief to the yuan, but cloud the long-term outlook

The ‘very good conversation’ on trade between the US and Chinese presidents has eased market fears. However, the market is hesitant to take the US president too seriously, and the Chinese currency’s outlook remains uncertain.

6 Nov 2018 - 10:29PM

The ‘very good conversation’ on trade between the US and Chinese presidents has eased market fears. However, the market is hesitant to take the US president too seriously, and the Chinese currency’s outlook remains uncertain.

How the Trump-Xi phone call and rumours of a trade deal have provided short-term relief to the yuan, but cloud the long-term outlook
Macroscope | China can’t be passive and shortsighted if it wants to get out of a bear market

The outlook for the Chinese economy is weak, as consumption falls and the deleveraging campaign stalls. Chinese policymakers need to come up with longer-term solutions and convince the market of China’s commitment to economic openness.

1 Nov 2018 - 10:04AM

The outlook for the Chinese economy is weak, as consumption falls and the deleveraging campaign stalls. Chinese policymakers need to come up with longer-term solutions and convince the market of China’s commitment to economic openness.

China can’t be passive and shortsighted if it wants to get out of a bear market
Macroscope | As China’s central bank props up yuan, the risk of depreciation falls

While history and recent moves by the People’s Bank of China indicate the country will prop up the yuan, the currency is unlikely to appreciate significantly any time soon.

4 Sep 2018 - 2:41PM

While history and recent moves by the People’s Bank of China indicate the country will prop up the yuan, the currency is unlikely to appreciate significantly any time soon.

As China’s central bank props up yuan, the risk of depreciation falls
Macroscope | Is China targeting the right enemy in its war on debt?

Chinese policymakers torn between spurring growth and pushing financial deleveraging should first differentiate bad debt from good – they should reform the state sector, but also provide help to ease companies’ cash flow.

23 Aug 2018 - 10:58PM

Chinese policymakers torn between spurring growth and pushing financial deleveraging should first differentiate bad debt from good – they should reform the state sector, but also provide help to ease companies’ cash flow.

Is China targeting the right enemy in its war on debt?