The equine changing of the guard in Hong Kong racing is proving somewhat of a slow process – something not entirely surprising when the old guard runs out of steam before the new guard has assembled enough soldiers to replace it.

One thing is certain – top-end talent in Hong Kong racing is currently lacking, with Golden Sixty the one true superstar – and another looks a reasonably safe bet – the cavalry is coming and there is a swag of potential stars among it.

Then there are the gallopers in the middle, many who have shown they can be competitive at the top level but who would need a lot to go right to win in the grade, whether again or for the first time.

It begs the question – just how many Hong Kong horses are actually capable of being genuinely competitive at this year’s Hong Kong International Races?

Only a dozen Hong Kong horses have won top-line contests on home soil in the past three seasons and half of them are now retired: Exultant, Beauty Generation, Beat The Clock, Mr Stunning, Time Warp and Glorious Forever.

Of those remaining, four-time Group One winner Golden Sixty is in a category of his own – the only horse you’d back in with any great confidence to bring home the bacon for the home team when he steps out in December’s Hong Kong Mile.

Can Blake Shinn break the early-season stranglehold of Joao Moreira, Zac Purton and Karis Teetan?

Waikuku, Hot King Prawn and Southern Legend aren’t getting any younger and need a lot to go their way to again climb the mountain, while Wellington and Panfield have to take another step to enjoy sustained success against the best.

John Size did offer some positive news, suggesting there is no reason Waikuku and Hot King Prawn won’t make their presence felt at some stage this season.

“They had long spells, both of them, and they’re training up OK so at this point they’re in pretty good shape,” Size said.

“We’re too far out to get any real guide as yet, they’re only just starting to work so I’d need to do a bit more but at the moment they seem fine. If they’re going to the races I’d expect them to run well, they’re good competitors.”

Columbus County, Jolly Banner, Rattan, Regency Legend, Big Party, Ka Ying Star, Furore, Mighty Giant, Computer Patch, Sky Field and More Than This all placed in Group Ones last season, but a big chunk of them did it in races with no international participation.

Sky Field and Columbus County look the most likely of that lot to take the next step, while Russian Emperor could have more to come.

Then we turn to the new guard – those yet to race at Group One level. Sky Darci, Naboo Attack and Courier Wonder look like they could have a say at HKIR, but the likes of Fantastic Treasure, Killer Bee, Master Eight and Nervous Witness are either on a Classic Series path or in the infant stages of their march to the top.

There’s plenty of reason for optimism, no doubt about that, but it’s clear those capable of taking on international competition and prevailing at HKIR are few and far between.

Outside of Golden Sixty, Hong Kong’s hopes will again likely be pinned to the Sprint and speedsters Wellington, Hot King Prawn, Sky Field and perhaps Naboo Attack or Courier Wonder.

Hong Kong swept the four HKIR features for the first time in 2018 – an early look would suggest that, provided the internationals make it across, a 2-2 draw would be a good result in 2021.

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