The betting public won't miss the John Size-trained Victorius when he makes his debut tomorrow night after an explosive trial last Tuesday, but don't let a short price stop you from using him as an anchor in a tough Triple Trio on the Sha Tin all-weather.
The two pieces of information - "Size" and "debut" - are enough to push most runners into single figures in betting, regardless of how they trial, but when a horse produces a slashing jump-and-run effort as Victorius did last week over 1,050m with blinkers on, it almost guarantees favouritism.
After a three-length three-year-old maiden victory in country Victoria, Victorius arrived on a rating of 68. While he didn't set the world alight in his first three trials, it was followed by a 1,200m dirt trial win, albeit in slow time, that built some confidence.
Last Tuesday the move to blinkers got the desired result, and the Not A Single Doubt four-year-old has the shades on again in a Class Three over 1,200m, where he managed to get a run as a late replacement for Gold Ball.
He drops into gate five, but jockey Douglas Whyte may not be able to lead, with the speedy Lifeline Elite (Umberto Rispoli) drawn below him in four. He is the likely front-runner and, if the Tony Millard-trained five-year-old can replicate the rating from his last-start dirt debut, he should be among the placegetters.
There is a dearth of dirt-track experience in this race - seven of the 12 runners have never raced on the surface. The rest have 17 runs on the dirt between them and, of those, last-start course and distance winner Green Zone (Vincent Ho Chak-yiu) has 12 of them. Form and experience counts here, and he shapes as a solid pick.
On the same score, the up-in-grade All Friends (Alex Lai Hoi-wing) goes in with a last-start win at the Sha Tin night meeting a month ago, over a non-preferred 1,650m and with a two-from-four record on the track.
The two races bookending the TT are nightmares - 1,800m battles of attrition in Class Three and Four respectively.
Well-drawn and in-form Magnumous (Matthew Chadwick) stands out as a banker in the final leg. He comes off a bold effort when runner-up over the extended mile a month ago and he gets in well at the weights compared to the horse that gunned him down, Happy Cha Cha (Jacky Tong Chi-kit).
Happy Cha Cha will end up last in the run, so gate 12 isn't a concern. Backing him to win is a heart-in-mouth proposition anyway, as he prefers to sprint up inside of horses and thus needs luck, but he has to be included.
Also throw in the well-drawn Jolly Good (Andreas Surborics), who won off a similar mark over the rarely-used distance a couple of seasons back.
Others to consider are Champagne Days (Weichong Marwing), who should get a gun run from gate one, and Victory Mascot (Brett Prebble).
In the opening leg, surely it is Our Dynasty's turn to break through. He runs well on the track and if Prebble can weave some magic from gate 12 (there are 14 runners allowed over 1,800m), he can go close.
There does seem a few entered out of desperation and a query at the trip and on the dirt, but then again the horses with proven form aren't much good either. Glory Of India (Whyte), Mr Marfach (Ben So Tik-hung) and Young Hero (Richard Fourie) should also be considered.
TRACK STARS
RACE 1:
(2) Winner Smart, (6) Dashing Ace, (10) Passionate, (11) Plot Ratio.
RACE 2:
(1) Country Charm, (4) Thunder Flyer, (10) Honey Fortune, (11) Gracytom.
RACE 3:
(1) O'Halo, (5) Group Leader, (7) City Of Lights, (9) Kidconi.
RACE 4:
(1) Jun Hua, (3) Towering Storm, (8) Clement Spirit, (12) Mr Marfach.
RACE 5:
(2) Flying Chaparral, (4) Victorius, (10) Rainbow Fighter, (11) All Friends.
RACE 6:
(3) Happy Cha Cha, (5) Ole Ole, (8) Champagne Days, (9) Magnumous.
RACE 7:
(1) Cheetah Boy, (3) Bundle Of Love, (9) Loads Of Joy, (10) Slick Bullet.
RACE 8:
(2) Frederick Engels, (3) Amigo, (4) Masquerader, (10) Earl Of Leitrim.
Read Michael Cox's blog - A master craftsman - that's the Size of it. Go to: http://www.scmp.com/author/michael-cox-0
