Just five rivals await Michael Chang Chun-wai's Rich Tapestry in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Sunday morning (Hong Kong time), but it is shaping as a solid litmus test of his Breeders' Cup Sprint aspirations.
That's the view of American racing analyst Candice Hare, who says the Grade One six-furlong event features most of the dangers Rich Tapestry will face again when he tackles his target, the Breeders' Cup Sprint on November 1.
"It's difficult to know where Rich Tapestry stands among our sprinters," Hare said yesterday. "Obviously, this race will tell us plenty about his Breeders' Cup chances, as he is meeting the main players in our sprinting division, but given the field, I'd be surprised if he finished worse than third unless there were drastic circumstances."
Despite Rich Tapestry being the first Hong Kong-trained runner in the United States since River Verdon's unsuccessful Arlington Million campaign in 1992, his arrival received little fanfare, with the main focus on the Hong Kong Jockey Club edict barring Chang from giving the horse Lasix.
However, a scintillating track gallop at Santa Anita on Thursday had track watchers talking favourably about the prospect of the Bauhinia flag flying high on Sunday.
"His gallop was sensational," she said. "He took to the Santa Anita dirt well and he looked fantastic, so I think there is a bit more hype about him now - more are taking him seriously."
Hare said that most Americans saw the race as a match between last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Secret Circle and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, with the three other rivals - Ankney Hill, Merit Man and Indexical - below their standard.
"Secret Circle shapes as the one to beat," she said. "He has only raced once since his win last year, though, and that was in a Grade Two race in February when he was surprisingly beaten, and an eight-month lay-off raises some queries. But he definitely has the ability, it's just whether he's the same horse as last year and whether he's fit and ready to go.
"Goldencents is taking a bit of a cut in distance here. He's run three times this year for two runner-up finishes before a win last time out in a Grade Two at Del Mar. His connections are still unsure whether he will target the Sprint or the Dirt Mile, so this will guide that decision."
One of the main concerns is the likely speed, with Secret Circle a noted speedster, while Goldencents leads at a fast pace over further.
"I think there's definitely going to be more early speed than he is used to, just because of the nature of American racing," Hare explained. "I think he would be suited if Secret Circle is pushed by either Goldencents or Ankney Hill, because he has such a turn-of-foot that if they do go faster than expected, he can be right there to capitalise."
"The query could be his gate, as he is drawn between Secret Circle and Goldencents. Both are very fast horses and are likely to burn along in front, which could force Olivier Doleuze's hand. Hopefully, he doesn't panic, takes a breather behind them and lets them cut at each other."
The Santa Anita Sprint Championship will be run at 7.30am Sunday morning, Hong Kong time.
