Patrik Schowitz

Patrik Schowitz

Patrik Schowitz is a global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Latest from Patrik Schowitz

Macroscope | China the key reason emerging market equities missed out on 2021 global rally

Strong corporate profits in a rebounding global economy lifted stock markets in the developed world but not those in emerging markets. China’s slowing growth, property sector jitters and the government’s regulatory crackdown all played a part in weighing down Chinese assets.

Strong corporate profits in a rebounding global economy lifted stock markets in the developed world but not those in emerging markets. China’s slowing growth, property sector jitters and the government’s regulatory crackdown all played a part in weighing down Chinese assets.

10 Dec 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | Supply chain crisis: why central banks should avoid overreacting to higher inflation

Inflation might be higher in this economic cycle than the last, but the current elevated rate is likely to represent the high point. Further burdening the economy with tighter policy could threaten the recovery central banks have worked so hard to nurture.

Inflation might be higher in this economic cycle than the last, but the current elevated rate is likely to represent the high point. Further burdening the economy with tighter policy could threaten the recovery central banks have worked so hard to nurture.

29 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | How China’s wobbling recovery could be good news for emerging-market stocks

If the slowdown in the Chinese economy continues, policymakers could loosen monetary policy again. That might end up helping the parts of the economy policymakers want to de-emphasise, but Chinese and emerging equity markets would cheer such a turnaround.

If the slowdown in the Chinese economy continues, policymakers could loosen monetary policy again. That might end up helping the parts of the economy policymakers want to de-emphasise, but Chinese and emerging equity markets would cheer such a turnaround.

24 Sep 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Stronger-than-expected company earnings set to drive stock markets higher

Falling bond yields are probably an exaggerated reflection of economic headwinds, given the distortions by central bank policy. Equities should stay positive as earnings outperform expectations.

Falling bond yields are probably an exaggerated reflection of economic headwinds, given the distortions by central bank policy. Equities should stay positive as earnings outperform expectations.

28 Aug 2021 - 3:30AM
Macroscope | Why fears over slowing global Covid-19 recovery are premature

Setbacks in the recovery are possible, and news on the Delta variant and Chinese economic momentum must be closely watched. But looking at economic fundamentals, this time it seems likely that it is bond markets that have got carried away with a gloomy world view.

Setbacks in the recovery are possible, and news on the Delta variant and Chinese economic momentum must be closely watched. But looking at economic fundamentals, this time it seems likely that it is bond markets that have got carried away with a gloomy world view.

16 Jul 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | Asian markets’ coronavirus divide: bright prospects for China, Japan as tourism-dependent economies struggle

While Asia has come to be regarded as a global vaccine laggard, clear differences are emerging between markets in the region. Among economies where vaccine take-up has been sluggish, those that rely on tourism will be harder hit.

While Asia has come to be regarded as a global vaccine laggard, clear differences are emerging between markets in the region. Among economies where vaccine take-up has been sluggish, those that rely on tourism will be harder hit.

11 Jun 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | As the US economy recovers from Covid-19, could markets’ best days be behind them?

Consider China, which has been leading economic trends during the pandemic. GDP growth reached a high point in the first quarter, but is now likely to slow and Chinese equity markets are reflecting this.

Consider China, which has been leading economic trends during the pandemic. GDP growth reached a high point in the first quarter, but is now likely to slow and Chinese equity markets are reflecting this.

30 Apr 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | What rising US bond yields mean for emerging market stocks

While emerging markets are much more stable than they were during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013, they are dominated by internet, technology and consumer giants. Because manufacturing and financial companies will benefit more from global growth, emerging equity markets may struggle to keep up.

While emerging markets are much more stable than they were during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013, they are dominated by internet, technology and consumer giants. Because manufacturing and financial companies will benefit more from global growth, emerging equity markets may struggle to keep up.

5 Mar 2021 - 5:00PM
Macroscope | Vaccine delays and interest rate rise risks fail to dampen market exuberance – for now

Markets have been fairly relaxed about vaccination roll-out delays but could still be spooked if a new virus strain proves resistant. A sharp rise in interest rates, particularly as a result of inflation, could also prompt a damaging sell-off.

Markets have been fairly relaxed about vaccination roll-out delays but could still be spooked if a new virus strain proves resistant. A sharp rise in interest rates, particularly as a result of inflation, could also prompt a damaging sell-off.

29 Jan 2021 - 4:51PM
Macroscope | Despite the coronavirus, equity markets have had a bumper year. Will 2021 be as spectacular?

Asset markets will have to transition from an environment fuelled largely by emergency policy support, to one driven increasingly by real global economic recovery. The likely recovery in corporate profits in 2021 is unlikely to lead to another period of outsize equity gains, as much of it is already priced in.

Asset markets will have to transition from an environment fuelled largely by emergency policy support, to one driven increasingly by real global economic recovery. The likely recovery in corporate profits in 2021 is unlikely to lead to another period of outsize equity gains, as much of it is already priced in.

24 Dec 2020 - 4:17AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: vaccine-boosted economy is still coming to grips with long-term effects of pandemic

While short-term optimism surges, questions remain over how much the pandemic has scarred the global economy and constrained future growth potential. It is hard not to be concerned about the impact of high debt levels on inflation and economic growth, even as some economists challenge orthodox views on debt.

While short-term optimism surges, questions remain over how much the pandemic has scarred the global economy and constrained future growth potential. It is hard not to be concerned about the impact of high debt levels on inflation and economic growth, even as some economists challenge orthodox views on debt.

28 Nov 2020 - 3:12AM
Macroscope | Why Asian equities look a good bet in 2021 if global economic recovery continues

Uncertainties remain, but the positive trajectory of global growth continues to march ahead. This should provide a good environment for emerging market stocks dominated by Asian export powerhouses that are dependent on the health of the world economy.

Uncertainties remain, but the positive trajectory of global growth continues to march ahead. This should provide a good environment for emerging market stocks dominated by Asian export powerhouses that are dependent on the health of the world economy.

17 Oct 2020 - 2:19AM
Macroscope | Volatile tech stocks expose growing vulnerability in US market

The domination of a few tech giants means the US stock market is more vulnerable to both narrow bull runs and sharp reversals in investor sentiment.

The domination of a few tech giants means the US stock market is more vulnerable to both narrow bull runs and sharp reversals in investor sentiment.

12 Sep 2020 - 4:36AM
Macroscope | What’s behind the US dollar’s summer slump and will it last?

The US’ mishandling of the coronavirus means its economic outperformance relative to the euro area and Japan no longer seems guaranteed. The dollar’s drop, however, is not a tectonic shift.

The US’ mishandling of the coronavirus means its economic outperformance relative to the euro area and Japan no longer seems guaranteed. The dollar’s drop, however, is not a tectonic shift.

14 Aug 2020 - 10:17PM
Macroscope | Earnings season will tell if stock market optimism is justified

Most market watchers predict a drop and bounce-back in profits sharp enough to be called V-shaped. If they are right, the reporting of second-quarter company earnings now under way should reflect a turning point in global profits downturn.

Most market watchers predict a drop and bounce-back in profits sharp enough to be called V-shaped. If they are right, the reporting of second-quarter company earnings now under way should reflect a turning point in global profits downturn.

24 Jul 2020 - 10:19PM
Macroscope | As equities improve, emerging markets and Europe are looking like good bets

Amid a dramatic US-led stock market rebound, overlooked emerging market equities stand to reap the benefits of a cyclical upturn, subject to US dollar strength, while European equities are increasingly attractive after recent policy boosts.

Amid a dramatic US-led stock market rebound, overlooked emerging market equities stand to reap the benefits of a cyclical upturn, subject to US dollar strength, while European equities are increasingly attractive after recent policy boosts.

29 May 2020 - 10:32PM
Macroscope | As the coronavirus batters economies worldwide, what accounts for the truncated US bear market?

Investors seem to be weighing the market’s long-term prospects, based on stimulus measures, rather than voting on short-term risk.

Investors seem to be weighing the market’s long-term prospects, based on stimulus measures, rather than voting on short-term risk.

17 Apr 2020 - 10:26PM
Macroscope | Why crashing oil prices amid the coronavirus epidemic are good news for most of Asia

Most Asian economies are net oil importers so a fall in oil prices will lead to stronger economic growth, allowing governments to initiate fiscal stimulus measures to counteract the effect of the coronavirus outbreak.

Most Asian economies are net oil importers so a fall in oil prices will lead to stronger economic growth, allowing governments to initiate fiscal stimulus measures to counteract the effect of the coronavirus outbreak.

13 Mar 2020 - 10:21PM
Macroscope | Here’s what will help financial markets battle impact of the coronavirus outbreak: a return of corporate earnings growth

After a spectacular 2019, markets could rise modestly in 2020 on the back of stabilising profit margins amid recovering economic growth. The reporting season now under way will set the tone for markets.

After a spectacular 2019, markets could rise modestly in 2020 on the back of stabilising profit margins amid recovering economic growth. The reporting season now under way will set the tone for markets.

1 Feb 2020 - 2:29AM
Macroscope | After a year of conflicting signals, investors should welcome the growth and moderation of 2020

The divergence of rising stock markets from economic realities and political tensions can be expected to narrow in the coming year, on signs of a modest rebound in global manufacturing and a reduction of geopolitical risks.

The divergence of rising stock markets from economic realities and political tensions can be expected to narrow in the coming year, on signs of a modest rebound in global manufacturing and a reduction of geopolitical risks.

27 Dec 2019 - 10:40PM
Macroscope | China is likely to avoid the middle-income trap. But investors should beware the pitfalls of focusing only on headline growth

While economic growth is important, investor returns depend on more than that. In China’s case, the deepening and opening up of its financial markets are factors that will boost returns – and help it escape the middle-income trap.

While economic growth is important, investor returns depend on more than that. In China’s case, the deepening and opening up of its financial markets are factors that will boost returns – and help it escape the middle-income trap.

9 Nov 2019 - 7:57AM
Macroscope | From the trade war to Brexit and the Hong Kong turmoil, simmering political issues remain a threat to global growth

Recent positive developments in some of the major issues weighing on markets, from the US-China trade war to Hong Kong’s protests, offer a welcome respite. But economic fundamentals remain weak and policymakers’ toolboxes are limited.

Recent positive developments in some of the major issues weighing on markets, from the US-China trade war to Hong Kong’s protests, offer a welcome respite. But economic fundamentals remain weak and policymakers’ toolboxes are limited.

13 Sep 2019 - 10:30PM
Macroscope | Trade war doubts and central bank loosening have done the unthinkable – brought down bond yields and driven up equities

Normally falling bond yields are a sign of conditions that bring down equity markets. That’s not the case at the moment, but failure to resolve the trade dispute could end equities’ winning streak.

Normally falling bond yields are a sign of conditions that bring down equity markets. That’s not the case at the moment, but failure to resolve the trade dispute could end equities’ winning streak.

13 Jul 2019 - 7:30AM
Macroscope | Amid the trade war, Asia cannot count on Chinese stimulus to boost growth this time around

While China’s boost to the property sector in 2016 translated into an increase in commodity imports from emerging Asia, this year’s infrastructure-focused stimulus is unlikely to have the same effect. Meanwhile, trade war headwinds are likely to hit exports from the region.

While China’s boost to the property sector in 2016 translated into an increase in commodity imports from emerging Asia, this year’s infrastructure-focused stimulus is unlikely to have the same effect. Meanwhile, trade war headwinds are likely to hit exports from the region.

14 Jun 2019 - 10:31PM
Macroscope | Even a trade war deal with the US won’t be a cure-all for China’s economy and stock market

A close look at the Shanghai benchmark index reveals investors were already less bullish before the latest trade war flare-up. Chinese investor sentiment is also closely linked to whether the central bank will take further stimulus measures.

A close look at the Shanghai benchmark index reveals investors were already less bullish before the latest trade war flare-up. Chinese investor sentiment is also closely linked to whether the central bank will take further stimulus measures.

24 May 2019 - 10:44PM
Macroscope | Will markets extend their record-breaking run into 2020? Watch what corporate profits tell us

Despite a recent surge, stock markets are roughly where they were before last year’s drop-off. Investors should watch what companies are saying about global conditions to anticipate what’s next.

Despite a recent surge, stock markets are roughly where they were before last year’s drop-off. Investors should watch what companies are saying about global conditions to anticipate what’s next.

26 Apr 2019 - 10:28PM
Macroscope | The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance might not last as long as exuberant investors expect

While markets’ optimistic response to progress on a US-China trade deal and Chinese economic stimulus seems sensible, expectations that the Fed will continue its leniency in this cycle may be overblown.

While markets’ optimistic response to progress on a US-China trade deal and Chinese economic stimulus seems sensible, expectations that the Fed will continue its leniency in this cycle may be overblown.

22 Mar 2019 - 10:27PM
Macroscope | China’s stimulus plan will lift the economy, just not right away

Despite the gloom of a slowdown as the impact of a trade war with the US hits, the raft of policy measures Beijing is taking is boosting market optimism. The strong rally in the stock market may well signal the economic cycle is ready to turn.

Despite the gloom of a slowdown as the impact of a trade war with the US hits, the raft of policy measures Beijing is taking is boosting market optimism. The strong rally in the stock market may well signal the economic cycle is ready to turn.

8 Mar 2019 - 10:29PM
Macroscope | Markets should expect companies to lower growth expectations – and then to beat them

If investors are looking for something to bank on amid market chaos, take the projected profit growth coming out of US companies, then add 3 to 4 percentage points

If investors are looking for something to bank on amid market chaos, take the projected profit growth coming out of US companies, then add 3 to 4 percentage points

1 Feb 2019 - 10:30PM
Macroscope | Why China’s economy faces a bumpy first half of 2019, even if ‘trade peace’ breaks out soon

Weak stimulus measures by the government and debt concerns mean China’s economy is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Weak stimulus measures by the government and debt concerns mean China’s economy is likely to get worse before it gets better.

18 Jan 2019 - 10:19PM